Jan. 29, 1880] 



NATURE 



295 



combined into the single theorem that the greater side 

 and the greater angle are opposite each other ? 



Simon Newcomb 



THE SCIENCE OF STATESMANSHIP 



POLITICAL science and politics are two very different 

 things ; some progress has been made in methodising 

 the facts and inductions of political economy, but politics is 

 still little more than a chaos of party prejudices and per- 

 sonal invective. Yet there is surely no reason why political 

 action, the conduct of the State, should not be guided by 

 scientific method quite as much as the conduct of a scien- 

 tific exploring expedition such as that which has so 

 recently sailed over the North-East Passage. Prof. 

 Nordenskjold's feat is one of the finest instances of 

 scientific prediction based on ascertained data that we 

 know of, and we would recommend it to Sir William 

 Harcourt's consideration when he contemplates taking 

 part in another political "agitation." Sir William 

 has succeeded in getting such a firm grasp of the 

 real nature of scientific method, and he applied it so 

 wittily and so well in his recent Birmingham address that 

 we would advise him to follow out this line in real 

 earnest. So thoroughly does he seem to understand the 

 method of scientific research and scientific prediction, 

 and so ably, although only in sport and to banter his 

 opponents, did he expound it, that we think science has 

 lost in him a successful worker. To this loss we could 

 resign ourselves if Sir William would set himself to rescue 

 politics trom its present degraded position as a mere 

 theatre for party strife, and to elevate it into something 

 like a science of national life and progress. He munt 

 have taken considerable pains to obtain his knowledge 

 of the method and uses of the Nautical Almanac ; his 

 natural mistake as to its editorship we can overlook. As 

 to the truth of his application of the method of the 

 almanac to the construction of a Conservative Almanac 

 "after a careful induction from the conduct of Tory 

 government," we have nothing to do here ; its ingenuity 

 is amusing. With the following remarks, however, men 

 of all parties cannot but agree : — 



" Prediction in politics is not a matter of choice, but of 

 necessity. If public men are not fatalists like the states 

 men of our d.ining Islam, they are bound to foresee and 

 foretell the consequences of their action by which the 

 fortunes o tlie 1 ountry are determined. As the predic- 

 tions prove true or false so will they be judged, for political 

 prophecy, founded upon correct observation and just 

 inference, is nothing else but the science of statesmanship 

 itself." 



Here Sir William has struck a vein which might be 

 worked out to the elevation of politics, and with real good 

 to the country. It is, we believe, regarded as an incon- 

 trovertible axiom in British politics, that government by 

 party is the surest method of securing the most efficient 

 conduct of public affairs. This point we shall not discuss ; 

 but we vencure to think that if our political leaders were 

 to give their serious attention to the method indicated 

 above, party differences would be fewer than they are 

 and party strife less bitter, while the objects supposed to 

 be aimed at by all constitutional governments would be 

 much more effectually and rapidly accomplished. 



At present, to judge from the public utterances of our 



members of parliament and by the results achieved by 

 which ever party may be in power, party government 

 consists mainly in strenuous efforts made by each party 

 either to keep or to obtain place and power; this is 

 accomplished by means of what are called "agitations," 

 the great object of which seems to be to agitate the people 

 into the belief that the agitators are angels from heaven 

 who have the good of the nation disinterestedly at heart, 

 while their opponents are quite the reverse, the only object 

 of the latter being, it is declared, to send the nation to 

 the custody of the person whose emissaries they are. 



There are one or two eminent men of science in 

 parliament, but no one of either party ever seems to 

 think of looking at any measure or any line of 

 conduct apart from party bias, and solely as a matter for 

 scientific consideration. It seems enough to damn a 

 measure at once in the eyes of one party, that it originates 

 with their opponents. This is both unscientific and irra- 

 tional, and can never lead to the best results. The same 

 laws that influence the development of the individual 

 influence the real progress of the nation, and it is only by 

 honest investigation on strictly scientific principles that 

 these laws can be discovered. It is thus that they have 

 been discovered and expounded by Mr. Darwin and his 

 followers in the case of individual organisms, and we 

 would commend to Sir William Harcourt the study of 

 Mr. Darwin's works, if he really desires to arrive at the 

 true principles of scientific statesmanship. One of the 

 great charms of Mr. Darwin's works to the man of science 

 is their perfect candour and fairness. Not only does he 

 adduce all the arguments he can muster in favour of any 

 position or hypotheses he may be considering, but with 

 equal fulness and candour does he treat all, according to 

 his lights, that might be adduced against it, balancing the 

 one --eries of arguments against another, not in the style 

 of a special pleader, but after the manner of a judge whose 

 sole aim is to discover the truth. Here is a specimen of 

 the method followed by Mr. Darwin, showing his ingenuity 

 in imagining objections to his own theories and thus putting 

 arguments into the mouths of his opponents. We quote 

 from the " Origin of Species " (1S60, p. 462) : — 



"As on the theory of natural selection an interminable 

 number of intermediate forms must have existed, linking 

 together all the species in each group by gradations as 

 fine as our present varieties, it may be asked, Why do 

 we not see these linking forms all amund us? Why are 

 not all organic beings blended together in an inextricable 

 c aos ? With respe.t to existing forms, we should re- 

 member that we have no right to expert (excepting in rare 

 cases) to discover directly connecting links between them, 

 hut only between each and soaie extinct and supplanted 

 form. Even on a wide area, which has during a long 

 period remained continuous, and of which the climate 

 an 1 other conditions of life change insensibly in going 

 irom a district occupied by one species into another dis- 

 trict occupied by a closely allied species, we have no just 

 right to expect often to nnd interme i ite varieties in the 

 intermediate zone. For we have reason to believe that 

 011K a lew species are undergoing change at any one 

 period ; and all changes are slowly effecte 1. I have also 

 shown that the intermediate varieties which will at first 

 probably exist in the intermediate zones will be liable to 

 be -upplanted by the allied forms on either hand ; and 

 the litter, from existing in greater numbers, will generally 

 be modified an! improved at a quic-er rate than the 

 intermediate varieties, which exist in lesser numbers ; 



