1901.] 



COMMERCIAL JAPAN. 



2291 



enterprise and foreign capital might be profitably employed, but its growth during the past decade has been inBigni£cant. Taking the 



other six staples, the following table shows the value of the exports: 



Silk 



Tea 



Rice 



Copper 



Coal 



Camphor . . 



Total 



1898 



Yen. 



44,673,342 

 H, 215, 991 

 5, 919. 230 

 7,267,074 



1.5,2'.^9,909 

 1,17:, 574 



82, 180, 180 



1897 



Yen. 

 58,683,102 

 7, SCO, 460 

 C,14.'>,249 



5, 776, 774 

 11,5)5,801 

 1,318,202 



91,329,678 



1889 



Yen. 

 29,250,aj2 

 6, 1.5<;, 728 

 7,43l,t;53 

 2, 87'J, o:j5 

 2,:;:!7,>*J 

 1,391,371 



49, *19, 943 



The rate of development in this branch of the export trade does not bear comparison with the rate shown above in the case of 

 manufactured products; the rate for the principal staples of raw products being less than two to one rnd that for the manufactured 

 products more than nine to one. Further, the items that make up the list do not seem to suggest any prospect of large increment 

 hereafter. Tea, rice, and camphor may be set aside at once — tea, because the market for it is limited and shows no sign of growing: rice, 

 because the domestic demand will probably keep the quotation at such a pomt that profitable export will be impossible; and camphor 

 because, whatever Japan's product might become under careful husbanding, it tends at present and has for many years tended to diminish 

 rather than increase. With regard, then, to the remaining three staples, the figures for silk seem at first sight encouraging. It iL«ed to 

 be thought, indeed, that an almost unlimited field offered for the export of Japanese silk; but of late China, with her newly establi.*hed 

 filatures and her originally better product, has become a powerful competitor, and there is now reason not only to modify the hopes 

 once entertained for the Japanese staple, but even to apprehend that it may be partly driven out of the arena. At all events, the trade 

 in raw silk is shown by exi^erience to be a delicate business, and the annual fluctuations are very heavy, as seen in the following table: 



Apparently the export of this staple i-eached its maximum in 1897. As for coal, it shows a substantial increase — from 2J million 

 yen in 1889, to 15j millions in 1898. But the growth of manufacturing industry in Japan Avill involve a correspondingly increastd 

 domestic consumption of coal, so that the portion available for export will become more and more limited. It is supposed that Japan 

 is not rich in coal. New seams may be discovered, but experts allege that even at her present rate of extracting the mineral, a fifty 

 years' supply is not in sight. Coal, then, can not be regarded as a considerably expanding staple of export. Copper alone remains, and 

 the same remark applies to it, that the sources of supply are comparatively small. On the whole, it can not be said that the future of 

 the export trade in raw materials offers an encouraging prospect. The gi'eat hope seems to lie in manufactured products. 



It might be supposed that the remarkable increase of impoils — namely, 57i milUon yen — was in anticipation of the high rates 

 imposed by the new tariff, which went into operation from the beginning of this year. But whatever the influence of that factor may 

 have been, it does not make itself conspicuously apparent in the returns. Here are the figures for the regular staples which ought to be 

 chiefly affected by an appreciation of import duties: 



18D7 



1898 



Cotton yarns 



Shirtings 



Other cotton goods 



Camlets 



Flannel 



Woolen cloth 



Watches 



Yen. 

 9,625,258 

 5,835,347 

 2,474,023 

 3, 835, 881 

 1,187,6.56 

 1,943,532 

 1,901,813 



Yen. 

 S, 517, 588 

 7,082,427 

 2, 4.5S, 090 

 4,3»<,427 

 1,360,283 

 2,803.918 

 2,960,212 



The total increase under thes'e headings does not exceed 21 rmllion yen. 

 growth in the returns must be attributed: 



It is to the following imports that the greater part of the 



1S97 



Raw cotton 



Sugar 



Rico 



Alcohol ... 



Yen. 

 43, 620, 214 



19,799,092 



21,528,429 



969, 360 



1898 



Yen. 

 45,744,899 

 28. 256, 359 

 48,204.197 

 2, 698, 039 



These five articles account for 32 millions of the increase. Among them rice is the most remarkable. The imjiort of rice under 

 normal circumstances ranges from 4 to G millions of yen; but the exceptionally bad harvests of 1896 and 1897 created an extraordinary 

 demand, Avhich will of course disappear in the face of the fine yield for 1898. Should the rice crop in the curivnt year l>t? of average 

 quality, it may be anticipated that under this heading alone the imports for 1899 will show a diminmion of fully 40 million yen. 



