92 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES 
Hil. 
Apart from the predominant influence just noticed which precipitated 
the onset of this policy of economic nationalism in all its violence it is 
probable that, in any case, there would have been some accentuation of 
tariffs and high protection during the period considered. Conditions 
which formerly favoured freedom of trade in international intercourse 
have altered or have given way altogether to new alignments of economic 
forces which inevitably suggest protection as the more desirable policy 
to pursue. It is worth while making a digression at this stage in order to 
examine these influences and to assess their importance in the general 
economic progress of the world since the early days of the free trade 
movement in Great Britain. 
Before the discovery and opening up of large tracts of agricultural land 
in countries outside Europe the cultivation of the soil in the older countries 
was carried on under conditions of diminishing returns. Population, 
especially in the recently industrialised areas, in the first half of the nine- 
teenth century was growing rapidly. This meant a rising cost of living 
due to continuous increase in the prices of foodstuffs ; for the production 
of the latter could only be expanded at an enhanced cost per unit. 
Current economic doctrine, at that time dominated by Ricardo and his 
followers, compared the product of industry to a cake to be divided 
among those who had contributed to its making. If wage-earners 
obtained a larger share profits were lower. It was, therefore, thought to 
be in the interests of industry to pursue a policy of free imports; for 
free imports, especially of food, meant low cost of living, low wages and, 
consequently, higher profits. The interests of agriculturists were over- 
looked and in the struggle which ensued the industrialists gained a decisive 
victory in England. Free Trade won and the French commercial treaty 
of 1860 marked the end of the fight for a time. Much freedom of trade 
was won also in continental countries a little later than in England, 
although in their case agricultural opposition was never completely 
crushed. 
Contrast this with the position to-day. Under stress of the War 
agricultural production was expanded everywhere, a technique almost 
entirely new was introduced and scientific aid of every kind enlisted, 
with the consequence that agriculture has come to be conducted, although 
perhaps only temporarily, under conditions of increasing returns. The 
rate of increase of population in the principal industrial countries has 
fallen and food prices are low. Ricardian economics are no longer 
authoritative and fears of scarcity have vanished. Industrialists, therefore, 
no longer have the motives they once had for maintaining free imports ; 
and they are strengthened in the opposition they now offer to their former 
policy by the difficulties they encounter in export trade. Since many of 
them are mainly dependent on this trade they are driven to seek alternative 
markets at home to replace those they are losing abroad. It is only 
natural, therefore, that they should become advocates of the partial or 
complete exclusion of goods which are likely to compete with them in the 
single remaining market they control. The greater the fall in their exports 
