6 THE PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS 



desires against old, or of the shifts of production and, therefore, 

 employment, with their social consequences. The economist 

 rightly studies these when they happen, but he is not dogmatic 

 about them not being allowed to happen at all in just that way on 

 account of the social disturbance or degradation of non-economic 

 values which they may involve. It is truly a ' no-man's land ' for 

 it is rarely that the functions of government begin until a vested 

 problem exists. Especially in Britain we do not anticipate — 

 ' Don't worry, — it may never happen.' Problems with us are 

 usually called ' academic ' until we are ' going down for the third 

 time.' It is a maxim of political expediency not to look too far 

 ahead, for it is declared that one will always provide for the wrong 

 contingency. The national foresight over wireless was exceptional, 

 and it has to be contrasted with the opportunist treatment of the 

 internal combustion engine. In reply, it can, of course, be urged 

 that no one can foresee just how a scientific idea will develop until 

 it is tried out, rough and tumble, in economic society, and to make 

 anticipatory rules may even hinder its development. 



It is rightly stated that the training of the scientist includes no 

 awareness of the social consequences of his work, and the training 

 of the statesman and administrator no preparation for the potentiality 

 of rapid scientific advance and drastic adjustment due to it, no 

 prevision of the technical forces which are shaping the society in 

 which he lives. The crucial impact is nobody's business. 



When the research worker lifts his attention from his immediate 

 pursuit and contemplates its hinterland, he has three possible areas 

 of thought. He may dwell upon its practical applications and seek 

 to make them as immediate and realistic as possible ; moved by the 

 desire not to be merely academic, he may return to his task, to focus 

 his attention primarily on what is likely to be of practical utility, 

 rather than on what is intellectually intriguing. Or he may think of its 

 ultimate social consequences, and speculate on the shifts in demand, 

 the unemployment, the loss of capital, the ultimate raising of the 

 standard of life that may result — in other words, he may engage in 

 economic prevision and social and political planning for the results 

 of his efforts. Or in the third place, he may listen and watch for 

 hints from other fields of scientific study which may react upon his 

 own, and suggest or solve his problems. I do not attempt to give 

 these priority. Economic and political prevision is the most difficult 

 and precarious, because it needs a technique different from his own, 

 and is not given by the light of nature. Specialist scientists have no 

 particular gifts for understanding the institutional processes of social 

 life and the psychology of multiple and mass decisions. It is a 

 tortuous and baffling art to transmute their exact findings into the 

 wills and lives of unscientific millions. But quite a number engage 



