3^8 The National Geographic Magazine 



Weather Bureau, aims to protect by 

 giving warning of approaching storms. 



The climatology of each State is now 

 so well determined and the information 

 is so systematically collated as to be 

 drawn upon daily by thousands of those 

 engaged in public enterprises, such as 

 the building of water works, where it is 

 essential to know the precipitation on 

 given watersheds ; the building of cul- 

 verts, where the extremes of rainfall 

 within short periods must be known ; 

 the building of great iron or steel struc- 

 tures, where the expansion and con- 

 traction of metal with changes of tem- 

 perature must be accounted for ; the 

 speculation in land in regions that are 

 not known to the purchaser, and the 

 selection of residences for health and 

 pleasure. 



It is not generally known that the 

 meteorological records daily appear in 

 numerou.s of the courts of the land, and 

 that many important cases at law are 

 settled or greatly influenced b)'^ them. 



Under the direction of Secretar}^ Wil- 

 son, we have recently arranged with 

 Europe and the Azore Islands for the 

 receipt of meteorological reports that, 

 in connection with our present exten- 

 sive S5^stem, enable us to forecast wind 

 direction and wind force for transat- 

 lantic steamers for a period of three 

 days out from each continent. This is 

 an extension of the meteorological serv- 

 ice that has long been sought by mari- 

 ners. The new German cable from 

 lyisbon to New York enables us to get 

 direct communication with several isl- 

 ands, the reports from which are neces- 

 sary in the taking up of this new and 

 important work. 



Recently the Post Office Department, 

 through its rural mail delivery, has 

 placed at the disposal of the Weather 

 Service one of the most efficient means 

 of bringing its daily forecasts, frost and 

 cold-wave warnings to the very doors 

 of those who can make the most profit- 

 able use of them. The latest forecast 



of the weather is printed on small slips- 

 of paper, and each carrier is given a 

 number equal to the number of houses- 

 on his rural route. Thus does the me- 

 teorological vService insinuate itself into 

 every avenue that promises efficient dis- 

 semination of its reports. To be fore- 

 warned is to be forearmed. The last 

 appropriation for the support of the 

 Weather Bureau was $1,058,320. It 

 is the opinion of many insurance and 

 other experts that the meteorological 

 service of the United States Govern- 

 ment is worth over $20,000,000 annually 

 to the agriculture, the commerce, and 

 the industry of the countrj^, and this- 

 notwithstanding the large element of 

 error that must for a long time to come 

 enter into its predictions. 



It may be asked what are the pros- 

 pects for an improvement in the accu- 

 racy of the weather forecasts during 

 the coming century. To this it may 

 be answered that when our extensive 

 system of daily observ-ations has been 

 continued for another generation or 

 two a Kepler or a Newton may discover 

 such fundamental principles underlying- 

 weather changes as will make it possi- 

 ble to foretell the character of coming 

 seasons. If this discovery be ever made 

 it will doubtless be accomplished as the 

 result of a comprehensive study of me- 

 teorological data of long periods cover- 

 ing some great area like the United 

 States. While we cannot make such 

 prediction today, we feel that we are 

 laying the foundation of a system that 

 will adorn the civilization of future 

 generations. At the present time I 

 know of no scientific man who essay.s- 

 to make long-range predictions, and in 

 closing this paper I would especially 

 caution the public against the imposture 

 of charlatans and astrologists who sim- 

 ply prey upon the credulity of the peo- 

 ple. I believe it to be impossible for 

 any one to make a forecast based upon 

 any principles of physics or upon "any 

 empiric rule in meteorolgy for weeks- 



