274 



THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE 



explains why it is that England, then as 

 now one of the most densely populated 

 countries of the world, has quadrupled 

 its population in a century and increased 

 it 60 per cent in the past 40 years. Other 

 countries of Europe, with a greater area 

 in which to enlarge their agricultural as 

 well as manufacturing industries, have 

 shown an even larger per cent of growth. 



Even the Orient, which is usually 

 looked upon as of slow growth, has 

 shared, in certain sections at least, in the 

 rapid increase in population which has 

 characterized the last century. Japan, 

 with its dense population and limited 

 area, shows by its census records a gain 

 of 57 per cent in the last 40 years, and 

 Java, one of the most densely populated 

 islands in the world, has apparently in- 

 creased 60 per cent in a like period. As 

 to China, there is a wide difference of 

 opinion. Mr. Rockhill, our former min- 

 ister to that country, is of the opinion 

 that the estimates of both population and 

 growth are excessive, and that there has 

 been little, if any, increase in total popu- 

 lation in recent years, and the new gov- 

 ernment of China gives the total popula- 

 tion for all China in 1910 at 321,000,000 

 instead of the usual estimate of 420,- 

 000,000. 



The wonderful progress of the science 

 of preventive medicine is, however, the 

 principal cause of our increasing millions. 

 It was not so long ago that Russia had a 

 death rate of 37 per 1,000. That has 

 been cut down to about 30 per 1,000; ap- 

 plied to a population of 141,000,000, 

 which represents European Russia, and 

 the result shows a saving of 987,000 lives 

 annually in that country. England's death 

 rate fell from 24 per 1,000 in the decade 

 from 1 86 1 to 1870, inclusive, to about 14 

 per 1,000 in 1910. Apply that decline to 

 the population of the United Kingdom, 

 and the result shows nearly 500,000 fewer 

 deaths annually, in proportion to popula- 

 tion, in 1910 than in the decade between 

 i860 and 1870. 



During this period, by the mastery of 

 typhoid. through water and milk control^ 

 of diphtheria through vaccination, of 

 cholera through isolation, and of many 

 other epidemic diseases through various 

 methods of prophylaxis, death rates of 

 many cities have been cut down to half 

 their former proportions. The whole of 

 Germany had a death rate of 27 per 

 1,000 50 years ago. In 1910 its death 

 rate was 17 per 1,000. That means, ap- 

 plied to Germany's present day popula- 

 tion, an annual saving of 640,000 lives. 



The developments of the future in the 

 matter of world population promise to be 

 quite as striking as those of recent years. 

 Should the population of the world grow 

 from 1912 to 2012 as it grew from 1812 

 to 19 1 2, a century hence it will be prac- 

 tically 3,480,000,000, while Europe will 

 have a population of at least 600,000,000 

 by the middle of this century, and a 

 density in certain sections ranging up to 

 more than 800 per square mile as against 

 the density of 600 per square mile in 

 England at the present time. 



What effect the war will have upon 

 the future consuming and producing" 

 power of Europe cannot, of course, be 

 determined now. Certainly, however, 

 whatever changes may come in political 

 boundaries within that continent, Europe 

 must continue to be a densely populated 

 manufacturing area, and therefore an 

 importer of foodstuffs and an exporter 

 of manufactures, with a constant increase 

 in her demands upon other parts of the 

 world for foodstuffs and raw material, 

 and a corresponding necessity to produce 

 and distribute manufactures in payment 

 therefor. The war may temporarily close- 

 many of her factories and even destroy 

 some of them, and at the same time re- 

 duce the working population, but Europe 

 will continue to be the great manufactur- 

 ing section of the world and the great 

 importer and consumer of the food prod- 

 ucts and raw materials of America, Aus- 

 tralia, and the now undeveloped sections- 

 of the tropical world. 



O. P. Austin. 



