720 MYRON L. FULLER 
PROBABILITY OF FUTURE EARTHQUAKES 
The earthquake of 1692 was much more destructive than the 
one of the present year. It was followed by a long period of relative 
quiescence, but with sufficient minor shocks to show that the read- 
justment was not complete until another great slip resulted in the 
shock of Jamaica, which, together with the subsequent tremblings, 
show the same is still true of the present time. A temporary local 
readjustment has, however, probably been reached, but although 
another severe earthquake may not occur in the near future, destruc- 
tive shocks will almost certainly occur at some time in the future. 
CAUSE 
The writer believes the earthquake of January 14 to be due to a 
displacement along an east-west fracture probably not over three 
miles in depth at a point three or four miles south of the city, the 
greatest movement being at a point about four to five miles southeast 
of the city of Kingston. The disturbance is regarded as probably 
resulting either from isostatic readjustments or to fracture under 
the accumulated stresses due to processes of folding or uplift. The 
reasons are as follows: 
t. The direction of movement along the south coast in the vicinity 
of Kingston varied from southeast-northwest to southwest-northeast, 
apparently indicating a long line of disturbance rather than a localized 
center, the position of the fracture being to the south and hence 
beneath the sea. Movement along such a fault explains the variation 
of direction of propagation of the vibrations near Kingston, and the 
tortional movement so characteristic of the later vibrations. 
2. The area of greatest disturbance extended from the eastern 
part of Kingston to Bull Bay, some miles beyond the base of the Pali- 
sadoes, as shown by the more severe action on buildings, the greater 
frequency of fissures, the more profound disturbances in the rocks 
(as evidenced by the breaking out of springs), by the more frequent 
prevalence of faulting, fissures, craterlets, and warping in the Pali- 
sadoes, and especially by the profound disturbances of the sea bottom 
leading to the breaking of the cable at a point three and one-half 
miles southeast of the mouth of Hope River and the base of the 
Palisadoes. 
