THE CENSUS OF 1861. 15 



Quebec and Montreal, and 123,631 appear to have come through the 

 United States, during the same period. Of these, 181,741 are re- 

 turned by the local agents as being settled in Upper Canada. Allow- 

 ing for the natural increase of these at the same rate, for the mean 

 period of 4| years, the number would be raised to about 200,000. 

 This appears to be the extreme possible limit to which immigration 

 can have swelled the population, and it would require a natural in- 

 crease of rather more than we have taken for Lower Canada, to 

 account for the remainder. 



But the numbers who are supposed to have permanently settled in 

 the country, are probably stated too high, and there has notoriously 

 been an emigration of persons living in Upper Canada before 1852, 

 which must have most materially reduced the balance. The numbers 

 of foreign birth living in Upper Canada in 1852, were 399,494, which, 

 in 1861, had become 493,212, making an increase of 93,718. All of 

 these must have been immigrants, and there must have been as many 

 more as would replace those of the 399,494 who had died. As a great 

 number of them would be in the prime of life, we can hardly estimate 

 the rate .of mortality as high as 1 per cent., but, even on this estimate, 

 the numbers of new emigrants would only be about ] 28,000, or with 

 their natural increase as above, abont 140,000, so that the increase 

 based on the Emigrant Agents returns, would appear to be overesti- 

 mated. But, on the other hand, the United States Census shews that 

 the natives of British America had increased from 147,200 in 1850 to- 

 249,970 in 1860. The several provinces are not distinguished in the 

 United States returns, but in the State of New York, in 1855 the 

 Canadians were rather more than nine-tenths of those from all British 

 America. Even allowing that in Maine and other Eastern States, a 

 larger proportion may have been from New Brunswick and Nova 

 Scotia, and that there were certainly many Lower Canadians amongst 

 them, it is hardly too much to assume that of the 102,000 added ta 

 the population of the United States, one-half were from Upper 

 Canada. This would leave a very small balance in favour of Upper 

 Canada, certainly not as much as 100,000. If we estimate the whole 

 accession due to immigration at that amount, it would require an 

 average rate of natural increase to account for the whole number, of 

 at least 3^, which appears much higher than is probable. The truth 

 probably lies between the two limits as thus arrived at, but it seems- 



