THE CENSUS OF 1861. 3 



1860. The deaths are there classified according to the months in 

 which they fell, and whilst it is notorious from the U. S. army returns, 

 and from the records of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and other 

 places where regular registers are kept, that August|and September 

 are the most fatal months, and that May gives rise to fewer deaths 

 than any other month except June, in the Census returns, by far the 

 largest number is recorded to have occurred in May. The reason is 

 obvious — the Census is taken on May 31st, and the recent deaths are 

 given probably not very inaccurately, whilst a large number of the 

 earlier ones are forgotten. Upon this subject the superintendent of 

 the Census remarks, in rather more poetical language than one is 

 accustomed to find in a statistical return, that " even as the eye per- 

 ceives the nearer objects in a landscape more fully and distinctly than 

 the remote, so the recollection of past events has a similar recession, 

 which is subject to laws." He proposes a correction from the army 

 returns, viz. : to assume the first quarter as correct, and to add 6 per 

 cent, for the second quarter, 46 for the third, and 58 for the fourth, 

 which must be acknowledged to be rather a singular law of lapse of 

 memory. This correction would bring the United States deaths up 

 from 1.27, as given in the Census, to 1.56 ; but, without putting too 

 much faith in any law of mnemonic perspective, it would appear more 

 natural to assume the number given in May as correct, and to iacrease 

 the whole number, in the proportion which the deaths in May by the 

 registers bear to the whole. As thus rectified the deaths would be 

 1.79 per cent. But it would appear that even this is not enough, for 

 the superintendent refers with approbation to an elaborate calculation 

 by Mr. Meech, the exact nature of which is not stated, by which he 

 estimates the deaths during the last fifty years to have averaged 2.2 

 on the population. From these facts it is evident, that with every 

 care by the enumerators, no reliance can be placed upon the returns 

 of deaths as given for a whole year, and that if any data upon this 

 important subject are desired, we must establish a general system of 

 local registration. 



Very nearly the same difficulties exist with regard to the recording 

 of births, but with this difference, that, whereas the returns of deaths 

 cannot be corrected, except within very large limits of error, the real 

 amount of births can be approximately recovered, if the Census as to 

 ages be tolerably accurate. In 1851, a column of births was given, 

 and also a column of numbers living under one year, the former being 



