October 29, 1920] 



SCIENCE 



397 



WHEAT PKODDCTION AND EXPORT IN UNITED STATES 

 AVERAGE BY 10-YEAR PERIODS, 1849-1919 



In 1849 we produced approximately one 

 hundred million bushels of wheat in the 

 country, only 7.5 per cent, of which was ex- 

 ported. With the rapid settlement ,of the 

 west production rose till during the decade 

 1879-1888 it reached 446,587,600 bushels, 33,3 

 per cent, of which was exported. Thus new 

 productive land was brought under cultiva- 

 tion much faster proportionately than popula- 

 tion increased. After this time, however, the 

 population so gained on production that dur- 

 ing the next decade only 23.4 per cent, of the 

 wheat produced was exported, and during the 

 ten years from 1909-1918 the exports averaged 



22.8 per cent, of the production. This figure 

 was much increased by extra exports during 

 the war. During the years immediately pre- 

 ceding the war the exportation of wheat had 

 almost ceased. In 1880, 80.4 per cent, of our 

 exports consisted of agricultural products, 

 where as in 1910 the percentage had dropped 

 to 50.9. 



These figures are significant since they show 

 that, even in a country like the United States 

 where the area and the resources seem to be 

 almost limitless, it will not be long possible 

 to continue to feed other than our own in- 

 creasing population. 



A condition that helps to bring this about 

 is the rapidly increasing proportion of our 

 city dwelling population. In 1820 only 4.93 

 per cent, were urban. In 1880 it had reached 

 29.5 per cent, leaving still 70.5 per cent, rural; 

 ten years later 36.1 per cent, were urban and 



63.9 per cent, rural ; in 1900 only 40.5 per cent. 

 were urban; and by 1910, 46.3 per cent, were 



2 Average of only 4 years. 



urban and only 53.7 per cent, rural. Indica- 

 tions from the 1920 census are that this year 

 will show more people living in cities than in 

 the rural districts. 



With a condition of this kind the food 

 situation is likely to become more acute than 

 where most of the population live on the 

 farm where they can more quickly influence 

 the rate of food production. With the growth 

 of many large cities and with the complex 

 systems of modem transportation and ex- 

 change, the food question tends more and 

 more to become a single whole-world problem 

 rather than numerous small local problems 

 affecting the smaller communities. With our 

 modern systems unobstructed by war we shall 

 probably never again have such devastating 

 local famines as were so common in past gen- 

 erations in India, China, and Eussia during 

 years when there was an abundance in other 

 parts of the world. 



The situation as it appears to me is this : 

 We live in a world with an increasing popula- 

 tion. This increase can not expand indefi- 

 nitely to fertile unoccupied lands since these 

 lands are becoming scarce. The food supply 

 .must be increased as fast as the population 

 increases, since food supply is the chief limit- 

 ing factor in population growth. 



There is no immediate cause for alarm, but 

 it is the duty of scientists and statesmen to 

 look to the future. We must not be content 

 to be like Sam the negro who took his stove 

 to his boss and offered it for sale for a frac- 

 tion of its value. On being asked if he would 

 not need it next winter, he said he would but 

 that winter was three months away while the 

 circus was to-morrow. 



Satisfying the needs of to-day is not suffi- 

 cient : we must maintain a forward-looking 

 attitude. It is impossible to make large in- 

 creases in production quickly; years of pre- 

 paration and work will be required to do any- 

 thing of permanent value. An adequate solu- 

 tion of the world's food problem can be made 

 only by deliberate planning. All factors in- 

 volved must be considered and a world-wide 

 prograra of work initiated, for the world is 

 not a unit in production and in consumption. 



