JANUAKY 31, 1913] 



SCIENCE 



163 



1897 S3 88 



1898 93 93 



1899 lOa 102 



1900 105 112 



1901 105 114 



1902 126 117 



1903 117 119 



1904 105 112 



1905 112 121 



1906 119 131 



The above statistics are as of July 1. 



1907 121 140 



1908 129 124 



1909 140 126 



1910 140 133 



1911 136 124 



The above statistics are annual averages. 



1912 148 131 



The figure for July, 1912, is given as the 

 last comparison. 



From the average of the low years, 1896- 

 1897 down to 1912, the food group has ad- 

 vanced 80 per cent, and the "other than 

 food" group 43 per cent. Thus, compared 

 with the two low years, 1896-97, foods 

 have advanced nearly twice as much as 

 other commodities. Consequently, the 

 hardships experienced by the classes of the 

 smaller incomes have been very great 

 throughout the world, inasmuch as in aU 

 family budgets the percentage spent for 

 foods increases as income diminishes. 



But, if we take as representative the fig- 

 ures of 1860 and 1880, leaving out of ac- 

 count the years of the Civil War and of 

 suspension of specie payments, we have 

 142 for foods and 155 for other copimodi- 

 ties. Comparing the conditions of the 

 years 1860 and 1880 with the low years 

 1896-97, we might have said in 1896 and 

 1897 that foods had fallen 60 points and 

 other commodities 63 points, or turning 

 the comparison about, food prices as well 

 as other commodities in 1860 and in 1880 

 were approximately 70 per cent, higher in 

 1860 and in 1880 than in 1896-97. In 



short, food prices are now on the level of 

 1860 and 1880 and other than food prices 

 are probably 15 per cent, lower. 



In summary, since food prices during the 

 past fifteen years have advanced in the 

 United States nearly twice as much as the 

 "other than" food commodities, it is un- 

 likely that the tariff has played so impor- 

 tant a part as other causes. Possibly, the 

 tariff is indirectly responsible to some ex- 

 tent in over-stimulating industries of the 

 "other than food" group, and in this way 

 helps to contribute to a deficit proportion 

 of agricultural population. 



It seems more probable, however, that 

 the great drop in prices which occurred 

 from 1880 to 1896 represents in part the 

 effects of the unprecedented railroad con- 

 struction of those days and of the utiliza- 

 tion of new inventions in farm machinery, 

 two causes which were at work and must 

 have cheapened the average cost of produc- 

 tion of the food group. Naturally, rural 

 population was displaced by farm ma- 

 chinery and we know that thousands of 

 acres of farm lands in the east were ren- 

 dered of less value by the falling prices, 

 resulting from the application of these two 

 great lines of inventions. As food prices 

 fell and immigration continued on a large 

 scale the wage rates fell, and reduced 

 wages made the cost of production of other 

 commodities lower and naturally the prices 

 went down in sympathy with the lower 

 cost of production. 



Food prices are fundamental and "other 

 than food" commodities are derivative 

 through the wage scales which vary with 

 the cost of food. Further, all statistics in- 

 dicate a steady drift of population away 

 from the food industries to the "other 

 than" food industries, suggesting that the 

 opportunity to secure steady work by labor 

 less securely attached to land has been bet- 

 ter in the "other than food industries." 



