Januaby 22, 1909] 



SCIENCE 



129 



rupture in that tract of coast; and sug- 

 gested, after his first anticipation had been 

 realized by the San Francisco earthquake, 

 that the next disturbance might be south 

 of the equator — where the Valparaiso 

 earthquake soon afterward occurred.^ 



'In an interview published by the San Fran- 

 cisco Bulletin of June 13, 1906, P. Omori says: 

 "Between 1899 and January 1 of this year (1906) 

 there have been several extensive earthquakes 

 along the coast of Alaska, Mexico, Central Amer- 

 ica, Colombia and Ecuador. These disturbances 

 are not to be regarded as separate or unconnected 

 phenomena, but were the result of great stress 

 which was taking place all along the west coast 

 of North and South America. The Pacific slope 

 of the United States remained comparatively 

 quiet all this time, so it was most natural to 

 expect a continuation of the disturbance in these 

 parts. 



"As it has finally happened this time I believe 

 it is over and the adjustment complete. . . . 



" The center of a future earthquake, due per- 

 haps to the same causes as this, will probably be 

 diflferent, and may take place as far away as the 

 other side of the equator." 



In a bulletin of the Imperial Earthquake In- 

 vestigation Committee of Japan, published in Jan- 

 uary, 1907, Vol. I., pp. 21 and 23, he continues 

 the subject, illustrating the distribution of seis- 

 mic disturbances by a map, and concludes thus: 



" The great stresses going on along the whole 

 Pacific coast of America, which thus resulted in 

 the occurrence of a series of great earthquakes, 

 seem to be connected with the growth of the Rocky 

 and Andes mountain ranges ; the Valparaiso earth- 

 quake bringing probably the great seismic activity 

 along the zone under consideration for the time 

 to an end." 



The forecast of an earthquake between Alaska 

 end Mexico was verified by the California shock 

 of 1906 and the forecast of a disturbance south 

 of the equator by the Valparaiso earthquake of 



1906. The forecast of immunity for some decades 

 in the Mexico-Central America group was shown 

 to be erroneous by the Mexican earthquake of 



1907. The success or failure of the prediction of 

 immunity for other parts of the coast remains to 

 be determined. It is to be noted (1) that the 

 Mexican earthquake, occurring in a district for 

 which Omori predicted immunity, was forecast by 

 both Hayes and Lawson; (2) that Lawson fore- 

 casts disturbance in a region north of California 



Hayes, after the San Francisco and Val- 

 paraiso earthquakes, suggested Mexico aa 

 a probable locality for the next rupture; 

 and after the earthquake which devastated 

 the state of Guerrero in southern Mexico, 

 made a similar suggestion as to Colombia.* 

 for which Omori forecasts immunity, and that 

 Hayes forecasts disturbance for a region south ol 

 Mexico for which Omori forecasts immunity. See 

 the following notes. 



' C. W. Hayes is thus reported in the Washing- 

 ton Times of April 16, 1907 : 



" At least one man, who has studied seismic 

 disturbances, has succeedea in predicting the lo- 

 cality of an earthquake months before the shock 

 occurred. 



" He is Dr. Charles Willard Hayes, of the 

 United States Geological Survey, who made a re- 

 port for the government on seismic conditions in 

 Nicaragua in 1899. In this report he made the 

 statement after the recent destructive earthquake 

 at Valparaiso that he would not be surprised if 

 the next section of the American continent to bo 

 visited by a seismic disturbance would be some- 

 where between San Francisco and Valparaiso, 

 probably in Mexico. 



"Dr. Hayes would not te surprised if the next 

 earthquake should occur in the United States of 

 Colombia, South America. 



"In speaking of the earthquake in Mexico yes- 

 terday Dr. Hayes said to a Times reporter this 

 morning: 



" ' While it is impossible to predict with any 

 accuracy the location and time of the occurrence 

 of an earthquake, our knowledge of the geological 

 structure of the earth enables us to determine 

 within certain limits the probable areas where 

 seismic disturbances are most likely to occur. 

 The course of these disturbances may be expected 

 to follow a general line of adjustment of the 

 earth's crust along the western slope of the two 

 American continents, the line being somewhat 

 broken in Central America. 



" ' The course from South America extends 

 north to the islands in the Caribbean Sea, and 

 that from North America is traceable down 

 through Mexico and Central America. This course 

 extends north along the coast of Alaska across the 

 Aleutian Islands, down the Siberian coast, through 

 Japan and thence across the Indian Ocean. 



" ' The disturbance in Alaska a few years ago 

 was the first of the series that has afilicted the 

 western hemisphere recently. It was natural to 



