Januaet 4, 1918] 



SCIENCE 



constructional facilities. Thus there arose 

 a greatly increased home call for foods, for 

 textiles, for metals, and for wood. Funda- 

 mental to all industry is energy. The 

 cnergj' derived from water can not be 

 readily increased suddenly; and therefore 

 the increased requirements must be met by 

 coal. This particular demand came rather 

 slowly; and it was not until the middle of 

 the summer of 1916 that a shortage of coal 

 appeared probable. From the middle of 

 that year, the demand has exceeded the 

 supply, and exerting every effort, for 1917- 

 18, it is estimated that the supply will be 

 50,000,000 tons short of the needs, although 

 the production has been largely increased. 



Mounting Prices 



It thus appears that, in consequence of 

 the World War, we have an absolutely new 

 situation in this country — one in which 

 there is demanded more of every essential 

 commodity than the counti-y is able to sup- 

 ply. Because of this radically changed sit- 

 uation prices began to mount, rather slowly 

 for most commodities until about July, 

 1915; but since that time for two years 

 rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Prices 

 at about the middle of 1917, as compared 

 with those three years earlier, just before 

 the outbreak of the war, for a number of 

 the most important commodities, were 

 roughly as follows: 

 Meat animals and meats, 25 to 75 per cent. 



higher. 

 Wheat and flour, two and one fourth times 



as much. 

 Corn and cornmeal, an increase of 80 per 



cent. 

 Potatoes, an increase of about 60 per cent. 

 Sugar, an increase of 75 per cent. 

 Cotton and cotton yarns, an increase of 75 



per cent. 

 Wool and worsted, two and one third fold. 



Bituminous coal, from two to threefold. 

 Copper, about two and one half fold. 

 Pig lead, about threefold. 

 Pig iron, about three and two thirds times 



as much. 

 Steel billets, more than fivefold. 

 Spelter, nearly double. 

 Petroleum, an increase of about 75 per 



cent. 



The Cajises of Mounting Prices. — The 

 fundamental cause of the mounting prices 

 is that which has already been explained, 

 an unusual and extraordinary demand at 

 first abroad and later at home for all essen- 

 tial commodities; but this has been only 

 one factor in the process. 



When it was generally appreciated that 

 there was likely to be a shortage of the es- 

 sential commodities, the home purchasers, 

 instead of buying ordinary amounts, pur- 

 chased in advance of their needs. Thus 

 the family, instead of buying flour by the 

 sack, bought a number of barrels; or, in 

 some instances, bought flour for years 

 ahead. The same was true for sugar. 

 Similarly during the spring and summer 

 of 1917, when it was appreciated that there 

 was a shortage in coal, many manufacturers 

 tried to protect their business by accumu- 

 lating reserves to carry them through the 

 winter. Many of those who required coal 

 for heat did likewise. 



The consequence of the unusual buying 

 campaign was that the demands of pur- 

 chasers were far beyond what would have 

 been necessarj' to meet actual needs, had 

 the ordinary procedure been followed. 

 This frenzy of excessive buying greatly ag- 

 gravated the situation. 



Another important cause of the rising 

 prices was that a time when there is an ex- 

 traordinary demand is especially advan- 

 tageous for speculators to accumulate 

 larger stores of goods of various kinds and 

 hold them for advances in prices This 



