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SCIENCE 



[N. S. Vol. XLVII. No. 1209 



is highly associated with efficiency and so- 

 cial worth, low birth rates in the best 

 equipped groups of the population can 

 have but one effect on the vital constitution 

 of the next generation — namely a decline 

 in constructive effort for national develop- 

 ment. 



Evidence suggestive of such decline in 

 national development is afforded by the 

 fact that coincident with a rapidly declin- 

 ing birth rate, France has had a high and 

 rather stationary death rate during the last 

 quarter of a century. England, through 

 the development of its public health serv- 

 ice, reduced its death rate to under 14 per 

 1,000 in the year before the war (1913) 

 when France had a death rate four per 

 1,000 higher. In spite of the low French 

 birth rate, the infant mortality rate .has 

 not been low, and has been coupled with a 

 high still birth rate. The death rate from 

 tuberculosis in France has recently come 

 into public notice here because of war con- 

 ditions, but it was high before the war. 

 The acute infectious diseases, including 

 typhoid fever, which have so readily lent 

 themselves to control in other European 

 countries and in the United States, show 

 unsatisfactory death rates for France. In 

 fact, we find in this country, side by side 

 with a low rate of reproduction, evidence 

 of indifference to the conservation of the 

 valuable lives that are born. A disturbing 

 element in the French situation to-day is 

 the lack of a national public health pro- 

 gram. Is it not possible that such condi- 

 tions result directly from the absence in 

 the community of those earnest and able 

 men who everywhere further progress along 

 social and economic lines? These lead- 

 ers of the nation are absent because they 

 were not born. 



It is painful to say these things at this 

 time and I should refrain from referring 

 to them were it not for the necessity of em- 



phasizing the facts which so directly affect 

 our own American population problems. 



The experience of England has been 

 much less acute, although the tendency of 

 the most recent years has been as dis- 

 turbing as that in France during the pre- 

 yious decade. In the five-year period be- 

 tween 1871 and 1875, the birth rate was 

 35.5 per 1,000 of population.^ In the period 

 1911 to 1914, inclusive, the birth rate was 

 only 24 per 1,000. The reduction in the 

 birth rate in England has been accom- 

 panied, to be sure, with a very healthy de- 

 cline in the death rate. In the forty-odd 

 years since 1871 this has decreased from 

 22 to less than 14 per 1,000; whereas the 

 decreasing birth rate in France did not ac- 

 company any appreciable reduction in the 

 deaith rate. The rate of natural increase 

 has, however, declined in England from 

 ;13.5 in the period 1871-1875 to 10.1 per 

 1,000 in the period 1911-1914. England 

 ,was still increasing in population at the 

 rate of 1 per cent, annually before the war. 

 The reduction in the rate of natural in- 

 crease and certain internal changes in 

 structure of population had, however, be- 

 come a source of apprehension to English 

 statesmen and a commission of qualified 

 experts was appointed to study and report 

 on the problem. Their findings^ have been 

 available for some time and may be sum- 

 marized as follows: 



The birth rate has declined to the extent 

 pf approximately one third during the last 

 thirty-five years. 



This decline has not been due to any 

 large extent to a decline in the marriage 

 rate or to a rise in the mean age at mar- 



8 Baines, Sir J. Athelstane, ' ' The Eeceat Trend 

 of Population in England and Wales," Journal of 

 the Eoyal Statistical Society, London, July, 1916, 

 p. 399. 



8 National Birth Rate Commission, ' ' The Declin- 

 ing Birth Rate — Its Causes and Effects," London, 

 1916. 



