118 



SCIENCE 



[Vol. LV, No. 1414 



reached where it is impossible to go farther. 

 Eventually it would seem that our western 

 civilization should reach a point when its con- 

 tinued dominance would depend upon the ef- 

 fective working of all parts of a machine, 

 grown far more extraorduiarily complex even 

 than we know it to-day. It is under just such 

 conditions that slight changes of environment 

 — using that term in its broadest sense — may 

 most readily bring about the stoppage of the 

 entire mechanism. In the hand-operated 

 printing press used by Benjamin Franklin 

 less than two centuries ago there was almost 

 nothing to get out of order. Compare it with 

 the highly complicated modern printing press 

 which might cease to f imetion if a single small 

 screw or gea:r should faU out of place. 



Turthermore, there seems to be a general 

 tendency for development to go too far — to 

 exceed the average capacity of the race at that 

 stage of its evolution. Human history itself is 

 full of illustrations of this principle. Many 

 an ancient king of unusual executive and or- 

 ganizing ability has easily maintained a great 

 empire during his own life-time. After his 

 death, his responsibilities passed on to men of 

 lesser ability, and the empire soon crumbled 

 into as many petty states as before. The 

 Greek Empire of Alexander and the Mongol 

 Empire of Kublai are familiar examples. 

 The greatest empire of ancient times, that of 

 the Komans, was expanded beyond the dimen- 

 sions which apparently were suited to that 

 stage of human progress. Without the ready 

 communication afforded by the modern tele- 

 graph and the efficient transport service of 

 the railroad and the steamship, the highly de- 

 veloped administrative and military system of 

 the Eomans was strained beyond the limit of 

 safety. It functioned for a time while con- 

 ditions were favorable, but it was unable to 

 survive much hostile pressure. No doubt the 

 solution of many of Rome's problems is em- 

 bodied in the modern British Empire. Thanks 

 to the progress of civilization in the last few 

 hundred years, the British have been able to 

 maintain control over a far wider expanse of 

 territory than any ancient empire. 



To-day we see something of the same ten- 



dency at work in our huge industrial organiza- 

 tions, generally bmlt up during the lifetime of 

 one man and in large measure as a result of 

 his exceptional ability. That more of these do 

 not fail after the death of their organizers is 

 due probably to our better system of demo- 

 cratic selection of successors trained under the 

 master himself, whereby the ablest men are 

 apt to be chosen. Nevertheless, it often hap- 

 pens that no one of sufficiently large caliber 

 is available, and hence the enterprise suffers 

 to a greater or less degi'ee and in some cases 

 drifts into disaster. There is some reason to 

 think that our industrial, political and com- 

 mercial undertakings are even now reaching a 

 point where they are growing so vast, so dif- 

 ficult to handle, and requiring so high an order 

 of ability at various points that they are be- 

 coming ineffective largely because a sufficient 

 number of men of first-rate ability can not 

 always be supplied. It is entirely conceivable 

 that as this process becomes even more pro- 

 nounced, the whole structure will in time col- 

 lapse of its own weight on account of this 

 factor. 



Even if our own particular civilization does 

 in time collapse and pass into the stream of 

 history, like the careers of Greece and Rome, 

 there is no apparent reason why other civiliza- 

 tions should not be slowly developed in its 

 stead. It is probably safe to infer that such 

 later civilizations will be founded on somewhat 

 different principles, enabling these successors 

 of ours to avoid some of the most serious dif- 

 ficulties with which we are now struggling. 

 Perhaps they wiU achieve better success in 

 those moral and social affairs, which are too 

 often overlooked in our modern order. But 

 there is no reason to suppose, however, that 

 they will not make other mistakes just as dis- 

 astrous, or in general that they will be exempt 

 from the inexorable natural law which has 

 brought about the ultimate decline of every pre- 

 vious civilization, each in its turn. 



Eventually, after aU the latent possibilities 

 for advancement possessed by the human 

 species have been exhausted, the race may con- 

 ceivably sink back to the general level of the 

 lower savages, which are but little above the 



