Septkmukr U, 1883.] 



SCIENCE. 



371 



with ancient villages ; The reliijious structures com- 

 mon to villages in prehistoric time, by S. D. Peel. 

 An abnormal human skull from a stone grave in 

 Tennessee; A new stand for mounting skulls, devised 



by E. E. Chick, by F. \F. Pittnam. Accidents, or 

 mode-signs of verbs in the Iroquois dialects; Studies 

 in the Iroquois concerning the verb 'to be,' and its 

 substitutes, by Erininnie A. Smith. 



PROCEEDINGS OF SECTION I. — ECONOMIC SCIENCE AND STATISTICS. 



ADDRESS np FRANKLIN B. HOUCII OF 

 LOWVILLE, NY., VICE-PHESIDENT OF 

 THE SECTION, AUG. 15, ISSS. 



THE JIETnODS OF STATISTICS. 



I INVITE your attention to a few thoughts upon 

 the niethoiln of xtitlistics — using the term "statis- 

 tics ' in its broadest sense, as a " statement of facts.' 



The subject naturally divides itself into two dis- 

 tinct operations, — the collection of the data from 

 which information is to be obtained, and their classi- 

 fication in a manner that shall without error, and 

 with the least labor, present the results in a form 

 most convenient for use. 



Commencing with the first of these, — the collec- 

 tion of facts, — it would be needless to remark, that 

 every thing depends upon the simplicity, accuracy, 

 and completeness with which they are obtained, and 

 that by no subsequent operation can their errors be 

 eliminated, tor their deficiencies satisfactorily sup- 

 plied. , 



It may he remarked, in general, that no intelligent 

 person, business firm, or corporation, can safely begin 

 any enterprise, — nor can any government, from the 

 lowest municipal to the highest national form, under- 

 take any ine;isuro with prudence, — without first 

 knowing all that can be ascertained beforehand con- 

 cerning it. 



In private business, inquiries are naturally made 

 as to the cost and the jirofits. If it requires the use 

 of a raw material, the parties will endeavor to make 

 tlicnisilvcs sure as to its abundance, — the probability 

 that the supply will be maintained, — or, if it be of 

 liniileil amount, the (luantity, and the time that it will 

 hold out. They will need to know the changes that 

 may happen in amount, quality, and cost; and similar 

 inquiries will be m.ade as to the expenses that may be 

 incurred while in their hands, — the chances of loss, 

 or of change in value, — and, finally, tlie extent of the 

 demand for whatever may be the product of their 

 skill, industry, and investment, its probable perma- 

 nence, and its tendencies to change. 



These questions, being well considered in the begin- 

 ning, will enable the careful operator to avoid losses 

 from imprudcMt investment, from over-supply of the 

 markets, or from the depression of receipts below 

 the limits of cost. 



By a train of reasoning analogous to this, those 

 intrusted with the government of towns, cities, or 

 states, may determine as to how far the cost and 

 luaiuteiumee of public enterprises will be justified by 

 the results; but with this difference, that the benefits 

 or profits, instead of being measured by a monry 

 value, are often to be found in an advancement of 



the public welfare, and in the security, convenience, 

 and prosperity that may ensue. 



But, whether in private enterprise or public under- 

 taking, we may attribute success alike, in both, to an 

 attentive notice of the f.aets and the circumstances 

 upon which they depend; and, if loss or failure fol- 

 low, the reasons may very generally be traced to igno- 

 rance or inattention as to the facts and probabilities 

 that should have been known beforehand. 



These thoughts lead us directly to the point we are 

 first to consider; viz.. How shall the knowledge of 

 the required information be ol)tained ? In the prim- 

 itive way (and for a small business this may be the 

 best one), the person will, from his own observation, 

 'look over the ground,' and consider the various 

 points to be taken into the account. He will make 

 inquiries of others, as to the sujjply, demand, pros- 

 pects of competition, and the like; ami thus accumu- 

 late a certain amount of information, upon the extent 

 and accuracy of which, his success or failure will in 

 a great degree depend. 



Advancing a step farther, we find, in most great 

 industries and interests of the coinitry, that those in 

 the same business or pursuit, whether in the arts or 

 sciences, or in financial operations, however they may 

 be influenced by local rivalries or petty jealousies, 

 are constantly tending to the formation of associa- 

 tions or societies, for the advancement of their com- 

 mon interests. They meet for the discussion of 

 methods by which expenses may be saved, or profits 

 increased. They inquire of one another as to then: 

 experience or observation upon doubtful points. 

 They seek to gather light and aid from science, to 

 stimulate and reward invention, and to excite rival- 

 ries in the com|)arispn of improved products. They 

 discuss financial and national questions that may 

 affect their welfare; and not unfre(|ueiitly they ap- 

 point committees or agents, from their own num- 

 ber, to gather statistical facts and details fur their 

 own use and guidance. 



We consider the information thus obtained, as de- 

 serving high rank in point of accuracy. It is chiefly 

 taken from records, without a nnitive for conceal- 

 ment or ev.asion, and with a full knowledge that self- 

 ileception and loss would result from error, whether 

 above or below the truth. 



From this combined experii'nce, each member who 

 participates obtains a standard for comparing his own 

 results with the general average. He camiot afford 

 to fall below it,and he has the strongest motives for 

 reaching the highest limits that have been reached by 

 others. 



Still these statistics, however accurate they may 

 be, are necessarily special, and often technical in 

 their nature. They catuiot be compared with those 



