May 4, 1917] 



SCIENCE 



423 



out what seems to be a rational method in 

 handling the whole matter. But a rational 

 method demands first of all that we face 

 about and get on the right road. 



Science knows but one way to deal with 

 its problems, and that is to face them in the 

 open; that is the doctrine to be preached, 

 and to be practised, and it is the only one. 



The more I study earthquakes the more 

 I am convinced that their dangers have 

 been greatly exaggerated by our ignorance 

 and through our efforts to cover them up ; 

 and the more am I convinced that a syste- 

 matic study of the subject on this coast will 

 yet enable us to outline with reasonable pre- 

 cision the areas in which they are liable to 

 be severe, and in this way we may yet do 

 away with their greatest dangers. Such 

 work should eventually enable us to locate 

 dams, bridges and buildings with reference 

 to earthquake risks, and it should enable 

 the insurance companies to deal justly with 

 their customers, and, at the same time, to 

 protect their own legitimate interests. 



But such work can not be done in a 

 month or a year, nor yet in ten years. 

 Neither can we depend on the stimulation 

 of violent earthquakes to keep people alive 

 to its importance. Indeed, very little is to 

 be expected of people who require violent 

 stimulants to keep them going. Machinery 

 of that kind generally stops when the stim- 

 ulants give out. Those who enter this field 

 should be people of some steadfastness of 

 purpose, and who have little or no ambition 

 to pose or dance in the limelights. 



It will require years of careful collabora- 

 tion, of patient gathering of data, of careful 

 study, the mapping of the areas in which 

 the shocks are felt, and the study of the 

 geology in order to know just what is going 

 on, and what is likely to happen. 



To those who may think favorably of 

 helping us in our efforts to study earth- 

 quakes I should speak this word of warn- 



ing: Don't expect too much of us, and 

 don't expect it too soon. Science must go 

 its own gait, in its own way, and it often 

 finds itself in a blind alley. It is trying; 

 we wish it were otherwise; but it can not 

 be helped. We can not trust the methods, 

 dogmas or conclusions of authority in 

 science. 



Science bows down to truth and to truth 

 alone ; we have no apologies to make for its 

 methods, its processes or its conclusions. 

 The more we know about the complications 

 and apparent contradictions of absolute 

 truth, the more we distrust the cocksure and 

 the authoritative settlement of scientific 

 problems. To many minds authority points 

 out the only satisfactory way and not only 

 insists upon it, but cites volume, chapter 

 and page to prove it, while science hesi- 

 tates, vacillates, theorizes, and, brazenly or 

 weakly, confesses its ignorance. There is 

 no doubt about which one of those guides 

 the crowd will follow, but neither is there 

 any doubt about where a crowd, so led, must 

 finally come out. Eca de Queroz quotes a 

 learned writer as stating that "Adam, the 

 father of men, was created October 28th at 

 two 'clock in the afternoon. ' ' Here speaks 

 authority, and we must confess that it offers 

 us a clean-cut starting point for the human 

 race that does away at a single stroke with 

 the doubts and hesitations of modern 

 science. 



Compare this with the confession of a 

 modern, conscientious physician who is 

 called to attend a sick child. He asks a 

 great many questions, he takes tempera- 

 tures, and he does everything he can to dis- 

 cover the nature of the illness, and finally 

 when asked point blank what ails the child, 

 he replies: "Mrs. Blank, I'll be doggoned 

 if I know what the matter is with the 

 baby. ' ' 



People who depend on hocus-pocus, and 

 are on the lookout for the psychology of the 



