TE Bie C Wes At hei eV es HE Wi 21 
for prices that would result in a profit to them can be blamed for their position. 
All connected with the sugar trade will remember that during the fall of 1919 and 
the winter months of 1919-1920, exportations from the United States to the whole 
world were very heavy. Doubtless contracts for forward delivery of very large 
quantities of merchandise were also held by the producers of practically every class 
of merchandise, among these being those whose product demanded sugar in its manu- 
facture. It was also well known to all sugar consumers at that time that the statistics 
covering sugar production in the world showed that given anything like normal dis: 
tribution and consumption, as indicated by past figures, the total crop would in all 
probability not be sufficient to supply the demand. This conclusion was reached after 
the preliminary estimate of the prospective Cuban crop was given out in December 
by the statisticians of the Island, showing a possible record production of some 
4,500,000 tons. Under these conditions, faced by heavy demands for products 
containing sugar and consequent needs of a reliable supply, it is only natural that 
the manufacturers of such goods in the United States should watch with extreme 
interest every turn in the sugar situation. The possibility of a sugar scarcity doubt- 
less also reached the private consumer, and this vast army was watching events, and 
knew that any change in the total possible crop would have its effect upon the cost 
to him of the sugar that he would require. 
All know of the large sales that were made for forward delivery by Cuban 
producers in the late summer of 1919 at prices around 6.50c per Ib. Doubtless these 
sales were made by men cognizant of the general sugar situation, and founded upon 
the belief that normal development of the crop in Cuba would continue. That the 
entire summer and fall in Cuba should pass with only a very sub-normal rainfall 
could not be predicted, and it was the natural belief at the time these sales were 
consummated that the splendid development of the fields shown in early August 
would continue, and that, therefore, a huge crop would result. That this same 
belief entered into the calculation of the estimates of the possible crop, and were 
justified by the appearance of the fields, is also evident, but here again the drawing 
out throughout the entire winter of the extremely dry weather that had made possible 
the beginning of the crop as early as November 15th was not considered probable. 
The world at large, therefore, counted upon a production from Cuba of a quantity 
of sugar about that given out by her statisticians, and so was on the watch, but quiet. 
3 It was not long after the commencement of the harvest, however, that the actual 
conditions in the fields began to be known among those closest in touch with the 
situation. Especially from Oriente Province did early tales come of the great shortage — 
of cane and the low per acre yields. Such reports soon spread to include Camagiiey, 
and later to many plantations in Santa Clara Province. These reports undoubtedly 
had their effect, resulting in the purchase of sugars at continually higher prices 
till over 10c per lb. was reached for December delivery and over 12c for January. 
Later on demand became less and prices dropped in sympathy till during February 
Sugar could be had at slightly more than 9c per 1b. to again reach 12¢ and over during 
March. Then the bomb burst. Revised estimates of the probable crop were given 
out, showing a possible lowering of the supply available from Cuba by over 500,000 
tons, and doubtless confirming in the opinions of sugar consumers the belief that 
had formerly been only a thought, that prompt purchase of as large a quantity as 
possible was the only method of ensuring a supply such as would satisfy what they 
considered to be their requirements. A further revision of estimated production, 
lowering it by almost another quarter million tons, was made in May, with a further 
acceleration of the upward race in prices, resulting in the sale of one lot of sugar 
for delivery in New Orleans at 2314¢ per lb., a. price which we believe to represent 
the high of this remarkable year. 
But the point that we wish to bring out is that the ever upward trend in prices 
was produced through the competition among themselves by the Northern manu- 
