THECUBAREVIEW 35 



SUGAR REVIEW 



Specially written for The Cuba Review by Willett & Gray, New York, N.Y. 



Our last sugar review for this magazine was dated November 11, 1914. 



At that date centrifugals of 96° test was quoted at 3 l-16c. per lb. cost and freight, and 

 4.07c. per lb. duty paid. The present quotation is 2 7-8c. cost and freight, and 3.89c. per 

 lb. duty paid. 



The market during the entire period under review has been quite steady, neither above 

 or below the quotations given. 



Immediately following our last statement, France withdrew entirely from our market, 

 having secured in all 65,000 tons refined. The United Kingdom has not entered our market 

 again. The absence of this foreign demand was felt in the decreased demand for raw sugars 

 and presented an opportunity for reducing stocks more largely by high cost sugar holders. 



These countries are not now expected to return to our or the Cuba market until ready to resume 

 the buying of supplies for use from May to October, 1915, and such time may depend largely 

 upon the course of jjrices for the Cuba crop between now and May. Naturally the general 

 feeling is the same at the beginning of this crop as at the beginning of previous crop seasons — 

 that the lowest prices may be made early by reason of the financial needs of planters or by 

 their desire to secure the profits visible in early deliveries. As regards the financial matters, 

 we are given to understand that the Cuban situation in this respect is much improved over 

 last season, and hence there will not be the same depression as then down to cost of production. 



Considering the several reasons for our belief we are of the opinion that the crop need not 

 at any time be sold at below 2J^c. c. & f. and from the low basis made for early deliveries 

 there will follow an upward trend to the market, reaching at some time 334c or even 4c. per 

 lb. cost and freight before the end of the campaign. 



We think the rise in 1915 is limited by the hedge which Germany presents to an undue 

 inflation of prices, even under an apparent deficiency of supplies of cane sugars to meet the 

 demands of the United Kingdom, France, and the United States at any time. The German 

 Government is reported to have apportioned its sugar crop as follows: Forty per cent, is 

 to be kept inviolable for home consumption; sixty per cent, is to be reserved in case the forty 

 per cent, proves insufficient, but with the added provision that a certain amount of the sixty 

 per cent, may be exported to neutral countries by special Government permits. This means 

 that out of 1,200,000 tons surplus above home consumption, Germany is open to negotiation 

 for exportations to neutral countries under favorable prices and conditions. 



The favorable price and shipping condition are not likely to come with Cuba sugar available 

 at say 3 He. cost and freight or below, so therefore, for the present no notice need be taken by 

 Cuban planters more than to consider that there is a hmit to the prices that may become 

 possible for the crop as a whole or in part late in the season. 



Neither is Great Britain likely to make the mistake of bidding for suppUes from Cuba 

 and the United States at higher than such can be secured in Java and elsewhere. 



The Java crop matm-ing in May-August, 1915, promises to be as large as the former crop 

 from which Great Britain bought 500,000 tons, and can no doubt secure as much from the 

 coming crop; in fact, at the prices to be paid, we thimk Japan will not buy as much as last 

 season by 100,000 tons. We mention these possibiHties only for the purpose of calling atten- 

 tion to the fact that consuming countries may not in the end be entirely dependent upon 

 the world's supphes of cane sugar without interference with some possible supplies from 

 European beet countries at some time during the campaign, even under the continuance of 

 the war. In other words, the fear of extreme high prices for cane sugars, as a result of war, 

 is somewhat diminishing, and must be considered by Cuban planters. 



With slight exceptions, our refiners have refrained thus far from accumulating supplies of 

 new crop Cubas at 2 7-8c. cost and freight basis, possibly for the reason in part that the 

 production for December-January is not sufficient to influence prices either way. This 

 delay in buying is likely to result in placing of orders later at or about present values, and not 

 materially lower, as already intimated. 



The demand for refined is now limited to the local country demand, but, inasmuch as the 

 monthly refining capacity of the British Isles is less than the monthly requirements of refined 

 for consumption, there is httle doubt but that when Grest Britain resumes buying, it will 

 include a good amount of refined from the United States, which will require an extra amount 

 of raw sugar to cover such sales 



We cannot do better than to repeat the closing remark in our last report that "there is 

 little doubt but that the entire Cuba crop will be marketed on a rising trend of prices after 

 the opening production is disposed of." WILLETT & GRAY. 



New York, December 10, 1914. 



On December 3d, Messrs. Willett & Gray wrote as follows: 



"The opinion still prevails that at whatever price the early deliveries from Cuba may be 

 placed, there will be a rising trend to values later. This feeling is based upon the fact that 



