THECUBAREVIEW 33 



SUGAR REVIEW 



Specially written for The Cuba Review by Willelt & Gray. Xew York 



Our last review for this magazine was dated December 10, 1914. 



At that time Centrifugal Sugar 96'' test was quoted at 2 7-8c. per lb. cost and freight and 

 3.89c. per lb. dutj' paid. Quotations have been 3 3-32c. c & f, 4.11c. duty paid. 



This quotation represents sugars in port and ready for immediate use. Sugars for ship- 

 ment vary in values as to time of shipment, but all positions show a decided advance over a 

 month ago, the last sale being for shipment January 23d at 3 l-32c. per lb. c & f (4.04c. duty 

 paidj. 



The reason for this unexpected firmness at this season of the year, which includes the 

 beginning of the Xew Cul^a crop, is found in the fact that weather conditions in Cuba, thus far 

 this season, have been quite unfavorable for crop-harvesting, so much so that sale contracts 

 made several months ago for deliveries in January have been found in some instances impossible 

 of fulfillment, and delays are being asked for. 



The December production of 54,676 tons, was reduced from 113,181 tons the preceding 

 year, and the January production promises also a large fall short. 



The number of Centrals working has only recentlj' risen to 113, and these are running 

 irregularly against 143 Centrals working regularly last year. 



Of course this delay does not necessarily mean a shorter crop than estimated for, but inas- 

 much as working under such bad weather conditions produces less sugar from the canes, the 

 question of a reduction in the final outturn may have to be considered later on in the season. 



An influence on prices is also found in these conditions. 



Usually January to March sales of Cuba and Porto Rico sugars are made on a declining 

 market, followed later by an advancing trend. No doulat the same may come to pass this 

 season as soon as the production warrants increased offerings, but it is also assured that the 

 declining trend of January-March will this year l)e much less than usual, and the advancing 

 trend set in as usual and continue throughout the present campaign year as we expect from a 

 careful comprehensive view of the entire world conditions. 



The improvement in prices noted has been entirely on account of local requirements of 

 refiners. No part is owing to a return of demand from Great Britain or France. Such demand 

 is still held in abeyance, l)ut should come late in April or May, and help turn the trend upward 

 from any intermediate depression. 



With the beet crops of Europe, which are held within the warring countries sufficient for 

 heir supply for two years, it is accepted that 50 ';'^ of the next spring sowings of beet sugar land 

 will be turned to the sowing of grain in the place of sugar. We do not think even if the war 

 should continue beyond the so\ying season, that sufficient beet sugar will be liberated to influ- 

 ence prices differently from a rising trend, although such trend might be smaller than is now 

 likely. 



An expectation of an average of 3 J^c. per lb. c & f for the entire Cuba crop does not seem 

 unreasonable to expect either with war entire, or only in part of the campaign. 



Any extreme high prices such as those of last August,we deem entirely out of consideration. 

 Any indications of such, at any time, would no doubt release some of the German sugar now 

 held suljject to exportation by sj^ecial permit of Government. As stated in our last review a 

 price of 3} oc- P^i' l'^- c & ^ i^ iiot likely to lead to such importations. Our remarks last month 

 in this connection would bear repeating, and our conclusion now is the same as then that 

 "There is little doubt but that the entire Cuba crop will be marketed on a rising trend of 

 prices after the opening production is disposed of." 



Our Annual Statistical just issued gives the consumption of sugar in 1914 in the United 

 States as 3,760,827 tons against 3,743,139 tons in 1913, an increase of 17,688 tons or 0.473%. 

 The first months of the year gave large increased meltings promising a considerable increased 

 consumption, but this was counteracted after July, and resulted as above. 



As average consumption must go on increasing in a country like ours, we look for a decided 

 advance to be made in 1915, and sincerely trust that the promise of a full crop of sugar in Cuba 

 may not be changed by any untoward circumstances later on. 



With best wishes to your readers, and compliments of the season to the .success of your 

 valuable publication. 



WILLETT & GRAY. 

 New York, Januarj' 11th, 1915. 



