THECUBAREVIEW 33 



SUGAR REVIEW 



Specially written for The Cuba Review, by Willelt & Gray. New York 



Our last review for this magazine was dated January 11, 1915. 



At that time Centrifugal Sugar 96° test was quoted "at 3 l-32c. per lb. cost and freight, and 

 4.04c. per lb. duty paid. 



Present quotations are 4.00c. c & f, 5.02c. duty paid, an advance of say one cent per lb. 

 for the month under review, 



The immediate cause for this extraordinary rise in values was entirely unseen at our last 

 writing. The conditions and prospects were based upon crop weather conditions and pro- 

 duction of crop in Cuba. 



From that standpoint alone we then anticipated, as we also did in our review for the pre- 

 ceding month, "That the entire Cuba crop will be marketed on a rising trend of prices after 

 the opening production is disposed of." 



The opening production has proved to be very materially less than anticipated and was 

 regularly disposed of from January 11th to January 22d when the rising trend actually set in 

 and at a much more rapid pace than could have been foreseen. From January 11th to 18th 

 values remained at the 3 l-32c. c & f. (4.04c.) basis then decHned to 3.95c. per lb. duty paid 

 with sales of February sliipment Cubas at 27-8c. c & f (3.89c.), changing on the 22d to 3.00c. c &f 

 (4.01c. per lb. duty paid). The low point of the present Cuba sugar campaign was on January 

 18th at 2 7-8c. c & f 3.89c. duty paid. This represented a dechne from the highest point of 

 the 1913-14 campaign, which was made on August 13th, 1914, at 5.50c. c & f . 6.52c. duty paid. 

 The total dechne from August 13, 1914, to Jan. 18, 1915, was 2.62c. per lb. c & f 2.63c.' 

 per lb. duty paid. 



The lowest point of the 1913-1914 crop campaign was made on Jan. 5, 1914, at 1.875c. per 

 lb. & f, and the highest point was made August 13th at 5.50c. c & f 6.52c. duty paid, a total 

 crop advance of 3.63c. per lb. c & f. 



Up to Jan. 18th the Cuba crop production was unsatisfactory by reason of bad weather 

 conditions, and poor sugar contents of cane which conditions no doubt prevented what might 

 have been a further decline of l-8c. to 34c. per lb. in value of the early production. 



On Jan. 22d, however, new circiunstances came to the front which changed entirely the usual 

 normal crop disposal conditions. On this day our Daily Sugar TradeJournal said in part: "Cir- 

 cumstances outside of the usual sugar trade conditions have entered the situation, which en- 

 tirely changes opinions as to the future of the market. 



This is the niatter of ocean freights. The British Government has been gradually accumu- 

 lating all the freighters that it has been possible to obtain for transport purposes, which natur- 

 ally has left a scarcit}^ of tonnage on the market. 



Immediately after the 22d of January freight rates from the north side of Cuba to Atlantic 

 ports were raised to 23c. per 100 lbs. against former normal rates of 8c. to 9c. per 100 lbs. 



It took the Cuban sellers a few days to reahze what this change really meant to them' but 

 the demand which set in at tliis end, both from refiners and speculators, was met by an advance 

 of prices on the 27th to 3 l-16c. c & f (4.07c.), and on the 28th to 3-3-32c. c & f (4.11c.1 and on 

 the 29th to 3 3-16c. c & f (4.20c.), and on Feb. 2d to 4.265c., and on Feb. 3 to 3 3-8c c & 

 (4.39c.), and on Feb. 4th to 3J^c. c & f (4.515c.) Feb. 5th to 3 5-8c. c & f (4.64c.), Feb 6th 3Mc 

 c & f (4.77c.), Feb. 9th to 3 7-8c. c & f (4.89c.), closing strong at 4.00c. c & f (5.02c.), per lb.' 

 duty paid. 



Quoting these daily advances is suggestive of the extraordinary advances made last 

 August, but these are for an entirely different cause as to detail, although a direct outcone 

 of war conditions. 



A difference now exists as to the demand, the present demand being exclusively for the 

 United States. 



The Cuba crop production will no doubt increase rapidly and be sold out of Cuba as 

 rapidly as freight can be had. 



^^^lenever the exports are sufficient to meet the U. S. requirements from week to week the 

 present advance should come to a stop for awhile at least, but to be renewed later on in the 

 season, very likely from the coming in of some competition from other countries besides the 

 United States. 



Present prices and the outcome of insufficient present supplies where they are wanted 

 rather than any insufficiency of supphes at production sources. This is a condition that may 

 be remedied at any moment, but the remedy for which (more tonnage) is not immediately in 

 sight. 



There are reports that serious labor strikes exist in Porto Rico, which have caused the 

 closing of several Centrals temporarily at least, and which add to the uncertainties of suppUes 

 for the immediate future. Under present conditions, it would be somewhat rash to prognosti- 

 cate the market for even a few days in advance. 



The rise may continue, or it may suddenly come to an end and sellers appear in majority 

 in place of buyers as now. 



