THECUBAREVIEW 33 



The accompanying chart gives a gi-aphic illustration of the wide fluctnations in the price 

 of Cuba raw sugar c . & f . basis 96 test, during the past five years. 



During these times when the world's production of sugar has been very much ciirtailed on 

 account of the war, causing wide fluctuations in the price of sugar over a short period of time, 

 it may be well to recollect the conditions prevailing during the two years prior to August 1st, 

 1914. During the year 1913 and up to August 1st, 1914, sugar sold as low as IKc. per poimd, 

 and as high as 2?i£C. per pound, or a variation in price of only Xc. per poimd. Whereas, 

 since August 1st, 1914, and up to the present time the price of sugar has fluctuated between 

 2J(fic. per pound and 5%c. per pound, a range of 3/j6C. per pound, with wide fluctuations 



These fluctuations are clearly shown in the chart referred to, which makes it apparent that 

 in the raw sugar market, aswell as in other markets, rapid rises are followed by rapid declines. 



It is interesting to note the similarity of price movements during the years 1915 and 1916, 

 the gradual appreciation during the first three months, followed by a period of high prices 

 throughout the spring and summer, with a severe break occurring early in the fall, and then a 

 sharp recovery carrying the price to new high levels. Although the fluctuations for these two 

 years are so similar in general appearance, the price levels during 1916 were considerably above 

 those of 1915, and if we are again to have the same appreciation of prices in the early Spring of 

 1917, and the price movements are in any way to resemble those of 1915 and 1916, it follows 

 that the price level must soon again move up, and new high figm-es be reached. 



This opinion, however, does not seem to be borne out by the present quotations of sugar 

 futures on the New York Coffee and Sugar Exchange, which are indicated on the accompanying 

 chart for purely comparative purposes (prices shown are those of November 15th.) These indi- 

 cate an expected drop in price on the arrival of new crop Cubas during January, February and 

 March, contrary to the action of the market for the past two years. During the remainder of 

 the year, the expected price level is considerably below that of 1916. It is also to be noted that 

 the fairly uniform anticipated fluctuations, as reflected in the price of futures, are in marked 

 contrast to the wide fluctuations which have occurred during the past few years in the actual 

 price of spot sugar. 



The estimates of sugar production for the coming year throughout the world indicate an 

 increase of over 900,000 tons. This is made up largely by the expected increase in the crops 

 of Cuba and Java, of some 400,000 tons each. 



A probable shortage of 100,000 tons is predicted in the next European beet crop, but this 

 is more than offset by increases of 125,000 tons in Louisiana cane crop, 70,000 tons in the Aos- 

 traUan crop and smaller increases throughout most of the South American sugar producing 

 countries, Porto Rico, Hawaii and many of the smaU islands. 



With the above facts before us, it will be interesting to follow the sugar market during the 

 first 6 months of 1917 with the idea of ascertaining to what extent the sale of Cuban sugars on 

 this market will be influenced by the actual statistical situation. 



The distribution of the Cuban crop of 1915-1916 up to November 1st has been approxi- 

 mately as follows : 



Ton of 2,240 lbs. Per 



each Cent. 



United States 2,04.3,000 73.8 



Great Britain 532,000 20. 2 



France 118,300 4.3 



Italy 25,300 .9 



Spain and Portugal 20,200 .7 



Argentina 4,100 . 1 



Others.... 300 



2,773,200 100% 



Probably over 500,000 tons of the sugar shown in the above table as exported to the 

 United States eventually were re-exported to Eiu-ope in the form of refined sugar. 



