450 



SCIENCE. 



[N. rt. Vol. XVI. No. 403. 



ena of natur.e are simply parts of one great 

 movement, each event a consequence of an 

 earlier trend and a natural, necessary and 

 obvious sequence of a next preceding event, 

 it becomes easy to understand that every 

 coming event miglit be foreseen by an all- 

 comprehending mind, and that even the 

 least learned and the most commonplace 

 among scientific men may predict with cer- 

 tainty within its limits, the man of genius 

 and learning simply having a more exten- 

 sive range within individual bounds than 

 his fellow. 



Certainty and accuracy of these oracles 

 thus are approximated as the conditions are 

 the more simple, the phenomenon the less 

 involved with other sequences, the trend 

 the more definite and the period over which 

 the curve of progress must be extended in- 

 to the future the shorter. The rise and fall 

 of the tides, the instant of an eclipse, the 

 motions of the companion of Sirius, the 

 form of every definite cycle, may be deter- 

 mined and their future predicted accurate- 

 ly. The growth of a great population, the 

 progress of civilization as measured by 

 growth of manufactures, or by advances in 

 education, or by the gifts of philanthropy, 

 may be traced along a curve of the imme- 

 diate future, at least approximately. The 

 coming events of the seismic period just 

 reached in the "West Indian seas cannot be 

 even approximately predicted. The trend 

 of progress of our own country may be per- 

 fectly determined and the future may be 

 as clearly indicated— provided no change, 

 catastrophic or other, in the controlling 

 forces which determine its path, meantime, 

 occurs. The astronomer deals with positive 

 and exact prophecy ; the economist and sta- 

 tistician must content himself with approxi- 

 mations and probabilities of varying 

 values. 



Yet, even the economist and the student 

 of history may declare assent to the fol- 

 lowing code and, in this general way, re- 



duce economics and history to the form of 

 a science with capacity for prophecy. 



1. The laws of social and economic phe- 

 nomena and movement control all human 

 progress and determine the advance of all 

 nations, and give form to their ' curves of 

 progress ' in wealth, education and culture 

 and morals. 



2. These laws are found to insure steady 

 progress with acceleration and without 

 much regard to so-called ' crises ' or good 

 or bad times. 



3. The ' trend of progress ' in past de- 

 cades, for example, in our own country, and 

 this acceleration, constitute a guide in pre- 

 dicting the immediate future of our indus- 

 trial and social system. 



4. This ' curve of progress ' being drawn 

 for the past history of the nation, its direc- 

 tion at the moment indicates the certain 

 trend for the immediate future, its prob- 

 able trend for later dates, and its progress 

 in future decades with a degree of probable 

 approximation which lessens as the remote- 

 ness of the time of fulfilment of the proph- 

 ecy increases. 



5. The means and methods of progress 

 are through the steady improvement of 

 the arts and sciences and the constant re- 

 duction of the proportion of the working 

 power of the world which is wasted, or at 

 least employed with no permanent effect, 

 with as constant increase in the proportion 

 applied to the increase of our stores of de- 

 sirable and permanent forms of wealth. 



6. Culture, and all desirable things, will 

 come to the nation, in the future, in increas- 

 ing proportion, so long as the present con- 

 ditions of production are maintained and 

 a whole nation is kept employed in increas- 

 ing proportion and with increasing produc- 

 tiveness and with constant gain in the pro- 

 portion of labor which is applied to the 

 supply of other products than those of im- 

 mediately perishable character. The less 

 the labor required for production of food- 



