872 



SCIENCE. 



[N. S. Vol. XVI. No. 413. 



longer period in consequence before explosive 

 conditions are again reached. 



With the kind assistance of Professor L. S. 

 Marks, the writer has attempted to determine 

 the next date when Pelee is likely to erupt 

 violently. Lacroix's latest observations, of 

 November 4, indicate that the volcano is still 

 intensely active, and this suggests that the 

 final culmination did not come in August, as 

 was the case' with Krakatoa. An examination 

 of the intervals and their differences shows 

 that no simple arithmetical law will serve for 

 the progression shown. A graphical solution 

 may be obtained by platting a curve for the 

 known intervals and extending this curve to 

 cover the next .interval. Professor Marks used 

 this method; the extension of a smooth curve 

 through the dates froru May 8 to August 30 

 inclusive indicates that the next interval is 

 about 112 days, if the same law holds. There 

 is no simple analytical solution of the curve. 



This would give December 20 or there- 

 abouts as the date of the next great erup- 

 tion of Mont Pelee. A French astronomer 

 has predicted an eruption December 16,* be- 

 cause at that time the moon will be full, and 

 when over Martinique will be at that point in 

 her orbit nearest to the earth, and hence the 

 lunar pull will be at a maximum with refer- 

 ence to any possible local instability in the 

 earth's outer rock-film. It has been suggested 

 that earlier eruptions were in singiilar coin- 

 cidence with moon phases. 



So far as prediction is possible, therefore, 

 on the basis of such insufficient data, two lines 

 of reasoning suggest mid-December as a time 

 when a great eruption of Mont Pelee is likely 

 to occur. T. A. Jaggar, Jr. 



Habvakd University, 

 November 18, 1902. 



SHORTER ARTICLES. 



THE ETHNOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF ESOTERIC 



DOCTRINES. 



In recent years the study of the esoteric 

 teachings found in American tribal society 

 has become one of the favorite subjects of 

 research of ethnologists. The symbolic sig- 



* L' Opinion, Fort de France, Martinique. 

 October 21, 1902. 



nificance of complex rites, and the philosophic 

 views of nature which they reveal, have come 

 to us as a surprise, suggesting a higher devel- 

 opment of Indian culture than is ordinarly 

 assumed. The study of these doctrines con- 

 veys the impression that the reasoning of the 

 Indian is profound, his emotions deep, his 

 ethical ideals of a high quality. 



It seems worth while to consider briefly the 

 conditions under which these esoteric doctrines 

 may have developed. Two theories regarding 

 their origin suggest themselves : the esoteric 

 doctrine may have originated among a select 

 social group, and the exoteric doctrine may 

 represent that part of it that leaked out and 

 became known, or was made known, to the 

 rest of the community ; but it may also be that 

 the esoteric doctrine developed among a select 

 social group from the current beliefs of the 

 tribe. 



It seems to my mind that the second theory 

 is the more plausible one, principally for the 

 reason that the contents of the teachings 

 among different tribes are often alike, no mat- 

 ter how much the systems may differ. Almost 

 all the rituals that are the outward expression 

 of esoteric doctrines appear to be old, and 

 many have probably existed, almost in their 

 present form, for considerable periods. Never- 

 theless, there is ample evidence of frequent 

 borrowing and changes of sacred rites. Ex- 

 amples are the Sun Dance, various forms of 

 the Ghost Dance, and the Mescal ceremonials. 

 Miss Fletcher has called attention to the fact 

 that Pawnee rituals have influenced the de- 

 velopment of the rites of many tribes of the 

 Plains. I might add similar examples from 

 the Pacific coast, such as the transmission of 

 Kwakiutl rituals to neighboring tribes. 



There is also abundant proof showing that 

 the mythologies of all tribes, notwithstanding 

 the sacredness of some of the myths, contain 

 many elements that can be proved to be of 

 foreign origin. It seems very likely that sim- 

 ilar conditions prevailed in the past, because 

 the wide distribution of many cultural fea- 

 tures can be understood only as the effect of 

 a long-continued process of borrowing and 

 dissemination. 



Since the esoteric teaching refers to the 



