184 



SCIENCE 



[N. S. Vol. XXXI. No. 788 



and peopled by two equal groups of chil- 

 dren, selected from some highly civilized 

 nation, and so selected as to represent 

 fairly the distribution of mental and phys- 

 ical traits among that nation. For every 

 individual in the first group, let there be a 

 practically identical individual in the sec- 

 ond. Let these groups of children be in- 

 troduced into their new homes in infancy, 

 and, by some quasi-miraculous means, let 

 them be all preserved to maturity, and then 

 let them, and their descendants, be left 

 entirely to their own devices, without fire, 

 or a language, or other modern improve- 

 ments. To watch such a spectacle from 

 afar would be thrilling, if not too pitiful. 

 We can readily grant that the infant com- 

 munities would begin at the very zero of 

 civilization, and that their progress, for 

 many generations, would seem excessively 

 slow. But the real point of the experiment 

 is to inquire whether these two equal 

 groups, alike in numbers, in heredity and 

 in environment, would remain alike, and 

 progress at equal rates. Probably they 

 would not. We must allow for a large 

 element of chance in the mating of males 

 and females within each group, and con- 

 sequently for changes and inequalities in 

 the distribution and correlation of traits- 

 changes which need not alter the average 

 of either group. We must allow for spon- 

 taneous variation in the offspring, another 

 accidental factor by virtue of which a 

 really inventive and effective individual, or 

 conjunction of such, would almost certainly 

 arise in one group earlier than in the other, 

 and give the advance of one group an im- 

 petus which might be felt through many 

 generations, and carry this group far ahead 

 of the other. And we must allow also for 

 the accidental factor in invention. Even 

 though the genius of one group was paired 

 by an equal genius in the other, it is im- 

 probable that both would invent the same 



things. One might invent a hunting imple- 

 ment, and the other a fishing implement; 

 and by this accident the direction of de- 

 velopment might be settled for each group. 

 If we closed the experiment after a thou- 

 sand generations, we should probably find 

 two peoples of different lang-uages, differ- 

 ent customs, and cultures divergent in 

 many respects. The supposed result may 

 be taken as an assertion of the importance 

 of accident in determining the destiny of 

 peoples. Obscure causes are no doubt at 

 work beneath the accidents, but we can not 

 trace them, nor reasonably state them in 

 terms of racial superiority and inferiority. 



It would seem that size of groups, and 

 accidental factors, exert so much influence 

 on the rate of advance in civilization that 

 differences of culture could possibly be ex- 

 plained without supposing the mental en- 

 dowments of the races to differ. Whether 

 the existing races of men do or do not differ 

 in such a trait as inventiveness is another 

 and more difficult problem, the settlement 

 of which must be left to time and educa- 

 tional experiments. The experiments must 

 be continued for several generations, in 

 order to equate social traditions. Regard- 

 ing the negroes of the south, I am informed 

 by a gentleman who has spent twenty years 

 in educating them that a distinct advance 

 is perceptible during this period, especially 

 among the children of educated parents. 

 These have more educational ambition, en- 

 ter school earlier and have less to unlearn. 

 The educational experiment, as far as it 

 has gone, thus shows that much time will 

 be needed before a clear result is reached. 



Meanwhile it may be allowed to add 

 one more general consideration by asking- 

 whether causes of a biological nature can 

 be seen to be at work in human history, 

 such as would differentiate the races intel- 

 lectually, and, in particular, such as to- 



