May 15, 1908] 



SCIENCE 



195' 



the Conservation of Natural Eesources, in the 

 White House, May 13-15. Through the 

 operation of state and federal geological 

 surveys, supplemented by collateral research 

 in higher institutions of learning, the extent 

 of coal, iron ore, and other mineral deposits, 

 in all parts of the United States has been 

 determined or estimated with a fair degree of 

 accuracy; so that it is now possible to say 

 that the original stock of coal of fairly high 

 grade was somewhere in the neighborhood of 

 2,000,000,000,000 tons, and the original stock 

 of readily workable iron ore approximately 

 10,000,000,000 tons— while the rates of con- 

 sumption and waste also are fairly known. 

 Through the operations of the federal forest 

 service, with the aid of antecedent agencies 

 and state bureaus, the rates of forest growth 

 and consumption and destruction have been 

 ascertained with a fair degree of accuracy ; 

 so that it is possible to estimate the dura- 

 tion of the timber supply of the country. 

 Through the operations of the U. S. Weather 

 Bureau, with antecedent agencies, the quantity 

 and distribution of rainfall, on which the 

 habitability of the country depends, has been 

 measured approximately ; so that the capability 

 for development of different sections of the 

 country is known in at least a general way. 

 Through the operations of the Bureau of 

 Soils, with antecedent and adjunct agencies, 

 the crop producing capacity of the different 

 sections of the country, together with the 

 benefits of improved cultivation and the losses 

 through soil-erosion, have been ascertained in 

 at least a preliminary way; while con- 

 temporary bureaus in the federal Department 

 of Agriculture and numerous state instru- 

 mentalities have indicated the leading prin- 

 ciples involved in that crop production on 

 which national prosperity primarily depends. 

 Thus the state and federal work to date has 

 served to establish the nature, and in some 

 measure the extent of the natural resources of 

 the country. 



Through the operations of scientific 

 agencies the habit of definite thought has be- 

 come fixed; so that experts habitually think 

 and speak or write in quantitative terms. In 



earlier years a coal deposit, or iron ore hody,- 

 or pine forest, was vaguely thought inex- 

 haustible; of late the first duty of the expert 

 is to estimate the quantity, the rate of pro- 

 duction and the duration of the supply. The 

 habit of definite thought in terms of quantity 

 is now extending to soil, to water-supply, tO' 

 productivity of the land in forests or other- 

 crops, and with this extension there has arisen' 

 a realization that none of the natural resources 

 of the country can be considered illimitable - 

 or inexhaustible, and that all should be viewed' 

 as national assets, to be guarded in the in- 

 terests of the country. 



In connection with the assembling of facts 

 and the development of definite thought 

 (which are among the immediate results of 

 scientific work), the habit and the faculty of 

 prevision have grown up. Prevision has aptly- 

 been styled the essential factor of science; 

 and its growth throughout the country as the- 

 result first of observation and then of definite- 

 arrangement of the facts relating to resources 

 can only be regarded as a typical illustration' 

 of the scientific method, notable especially for- 

 its magnitude — extending as it does virtually 

 to an entire people. 



The natural outcome is the idea of con- 

 servation as a public duty, which originated' 

 chiefly in the forest service and the geological' 

 survey; and it is significant that the idea 

 has taken form more or less independently 

 also in the minds not only of scientific men,^ 

 including engineering and other experts, but' 

 also in the minds of statesmen in every part 

 of the country. President Eoosevelt was 

 early impressed; Secretaries Wilson and Gar- 

 field were soon in sympathy; and when the 

 president and a score of governors met on 

 the Mississippi last October, it was found' 

 that a number of the state executives had 

 fully grasped the same idea. The plan for 

 the Conference, first definitely suggested by 

 the Inland Waterways Commission, was an- 

 nounced by the President at Memphis, Oc- 

 tober 4; and the interest has steadily in- 

 creased. The four great engineering asso- 

 ciations have contributed effectively by sepa-- 

 rate and joint meetings;, and commercial andi 



