August 5, 1910] 



SCIENCE 



163 



swamp lands in tlie United States that may 

 be reclaimed and used in profitable agri- 

 culture. The total area of these lands is 

 over 79,000,000 acres." Wherever these lie 

 in the wheat districts they may be so 

 drained as to be profitably used for wheat, 

 as the nature of the soil will be such, no 

 doubt, that they will be very productive. 

 Add to all these figures the natural expan- 

 sion of farm area in the older states, which 

 amount will hereafter be proportionally 

 greater than heretofore, and it seems rea- 

 sonable to expect 250,000,000 to 300,000,- 

 000 acres of additional farm area even in 

 the next twenty-five to thirty years. By 

 1950, therefore, the most conservative esti- 

 mate would make the total farm area of 

 the United States more than 1,300,000,000 

 acres, or about 70 per cent, of the total 

 land area. 



The improved farm area has heretofore 

 been about half of the total farm area, but 

 will hereafter increase more rapidly than 

 the latter. By 1950 it should therefore 

 reach at least 40 per cent, of the total land 

 area, or about 760,000,000 acres. 



Percentage of Fann Area in Wheat. — ■ 

 The percentage of total farm area em- 

 ployed for wheat has been as follows: In 

 1870, 4.5 per cent.; in 1880, almost 6 per 

 cent. ; in 1890, practically the same as in 

 1880 ; and in 1900, 5 per cent. At present 

 it is approximately 4.8 per cent. The 

 average proportion to date has been, there- 

 fore, 5.2 per cent. This percentage of the 

 future possible farm area would be over 

 69,000,000 acres, or 22,000,000 acres more 

 than the acreage of 1909. That is the 

 amount of future wheat acreage that is 

 entirely possible, simply on the basis of an 

 increase in farm area up to 1,330,000,000 

 acres. 

 Increase of Wheat Acreage within the 



° Senate Document No. 443, Sixtieth Congress, 

 first session. 



same Farm Area. — There is hardly a 

 doubt, however, that the percentage of farm 

 area devoted to wheat will itself increase. 

 Previously there was a period when the 

 proportion was almost 6 per cent., but 

 which was followed by a period of great 

 wheat depression in the nineties. Then, 

 even after a revival in wheat acreage, the 

 proportion of farm area thus employed 

 continued decreasing because of the tre- 

 mendous increase in the number of farms 



Fio. 1. Diagram showing increases in farm 

 area (upper line), in improved farm area (middle 

 line) and in wheat acreage (lower line) that may 

 occur by 1950, conservatively estimated. A, abso- 

 lute limit of land area; B, probable farm area in 

 1950; 0, probable improved farm area in 1950; 

 D, probable wheat acreage in 1950. 



toward the end of the century. Already 

 the percentage is again increasing, from 

 nearly 4.5 per cent, in 1909 to 4.8 per cent, 

 in 1910. Long before 1950 the proportion 

 should easily reach 6 per cent, again, both 

 because of probable wheat expansion due 

 to increase in prices and because the farm 



