August 5, 1910] 



SCIENCE 



167 



probability that the great increase in wheat 

 production through increases in the acre- 

 age and in acre yields that are entirely 

 'possible, will be realized, either in whole 

 or even in large part? In fact, it can not 

 be answered definitely. That which is pos- 

 sible may not be at all probable. One can 

 risk an opinion, however, on the basis of 

 the facts at hand, and in the present case 

 the chances seem strong that something 

 near the increase in wheat production pre- 

 viously discussed will be realized. There 

 are two good arguments that may be used 

 in support of this opinion. The first is 

 deduced from the facts of past conditions. 

 It is almost an axiom in common philos- 

 ophy that the trend of events in future 

 over a long period of time will be about 

 the same as in the past. 



WHEAT EXPANSION AND DEPRESSION 



In the past the tendency in most move- 

 ments has been both upward and down- 

 ward in wave-like motion, crest following 



Fig. 2. Diagram showing variations in wheat 

 acreage and prices for 39 years, from 1870 to 1908. 

 The upper line represents the trend of wheat 

 acreage (in millions of acres) and the lower that 

 of prices (in cents per bushel). From left to 

 right are shown the different years. 



depression and depression following crest, 

 though on the whole there may have been 

 advancement. The movement of wheat 

 acreages and prices has followed this rule, 

 and, therefore, it is reasonable to suppose, 

 will continue to follow it. These wave-like 

 movements are often complicated by the 

 fact that many small ones may be involved 

 within one large one. A careful study of 

 the course of wheat acreages and prices in 

 this country for the past forty years will 

 nicely illustrate these statements. 



Almost constantly large wheat acreages 

 and accompanying low prices have been fol- 

 lowed by diminished acreages and accom- 

 panying high prices, and so on. An un- 

 usual period of wheat expansion occurred 

 during the years 1881 to 1892, followed by 

 a period of great depression in 1893-96. 

 During both these periods and since 1896 

 many minor movements up and down oc- 

 curred. We are now apparently entering 

 a period of considerable wheat expansion, 

 and naturally enough prices are falling. 

 It is simply the old question of supply and 

 demand. The farmer can not be blamed 

 if he grows what is most profitable. If the 

 demand is great, and prices increase, and 

 wheat growing is profitable, the farmer 

 will grow wheat. It was simply in recog- 

 nition of this general principle that Mr. 

 Patten and his associates over a year ago, 

 foreseeing a necessary rise in prices, were 

 able to make a good "clean-up"; but it 

 was not the fault of this same principle 

 when, a year afterwards, the same parties, 

 turning too late from the oncoming wave- 

 crest of wheat, were caught and a good 

 portion of their previous gain washed 



The final result of the up-and-down 

 movement to date has been a greatlj' in- 

 creased wheat production. It is reason- 

 able, therefore, to expect the same thing 



