168 



SCIENCE 



[X. S. Vol. XXXII. No. 814 



in future, but we shall also experience sim- 

 ilar temporary fluctuations. 



ANALOGIES FROM CONDITIONS IN OLDER 

 COUNTRIES 



The opinion that a constant increase in 

 production will continue in future and that 

 the foregoing estimate of the amount of 

 this increase is very conservative is greatly 

 strengthened through reasoning by analogy 

 from conditions now existing in older 

 countries. Some of these countries are 

 now at the stage of development in agri- 

 cultural resources that this country should 

 not reach for many years. Therefore the 

 conditions as to supplies of different crops 

 existing in those countries to-day should 

 give us an approximate idea of what we 

 may expect. 



PERCENTAGE OF TOT^VL LAND AREA IN WHEAT 



Mention is made above of the method of 

 estimating the future wheat production 

 from the gradual but constant increase in 

 the percentage of total land area hereto- 

 fore employed for wheat, and it is stated 

 that 4 per cent, should be a conservative 

 estimate of the proportion of total land 

 area that will be so employed by 1950. 

 Statistics of other countries appear to show 

 by comparison that such an estimate is 

 very mild. The following figures give the 

 percentage of total land area now being 

 employed for wheat in a number of impor- 

 tant countries. 



It is seen that the percentage in other 

 countries runs from 1 per cent, in case of 

 Denmark to even 16.5 per cent, in case of 

 Italy. Spain is considerably mountainous, 

 but employs 7.3 per cent, of her total land 

 for wheat. Hungary uses 11.2 per cent. 

 The United Kingdom, though not naturally 

 a wheat country, practising greatly diversi- 

 fied farming and having much meadow 

 land, yet devotes 3.1 per cent, of her land 

 to wheat — .6 per cent, more than the pro- 

 portion we now employ. It may be ob- 

 jected that our immense corn crop must be 

 considered, absorbing a large area which in 

 other countries can be given to wheat, also 

 that in importing countries, like Italy and 

 the United Kingdom, the insufficiency of 

 supply itself furnishes a stronger incentive 

 for wheat growing. This argument, how- 

 ever, is of no use, for Roumania has a large 

 wheat export in proportion to her size, 

 grows three times as much corn per square 

 mile as the United States, yet devotes 14.5 

 per cent, of her land to wheat. Servia, 

 though growing much more corn than 

 wheat, nevertheless employs 7.5 per cent, 

 of the land for the latter. In Russia and 

 Germany much the largest grain crop is 

 rye, the acreage in the latter country com- 

 prising 10 per cent, of the area; yet Ger- 

 many, with much waste land, and com- 

 paratively large oat and barley acreages, 

 devotes 3.5 per cent, to wheat, while Russia 

 employs 3.9 per cent, for wheat, though 

 growing also more barley than any other 

 country, and more rj-e than all other coun- 

 tries combined. 



An average of the percentages of land 

 in wheat in these countries is almost 6.4 

 per cent., which would seem to be a fair 

 indication of the proportion of our own 

 land that may be sown to wheat many 

 years hence, provided there is sufficient de- 

 mand. That percentage would give us ap- 

 proximatelj' over 120,000,000 acres, or 25,- 



