August 5, 1910] 



SCIENCE 



169 



000,000 more acres than are now given to 

 corn, and much more than twice the pres- 

 ent wheat area. 



ACRE YIELDS IN OTHER COUNTRIES 



Statistics of other countries show also 

 that the limit of possible yield per acre of 

 20 bushels previously estimated for 1950 

 is much below what has been attained else- 

 where. Germany now produces 28.7 bush- 

 els of wheat to the acre, while in the United 

 Kingdom the average is 32.6 bushels (Win- 

 chester). In France the acre yield is 20.4 

 bushels. 



RECENT INCREASES IN OTHER COUNTRIES 



To show that increases in area and yield 

 may go on in later years, it should be noted 

 further that much recent progress has been 

 made in other countries. For example, in 

 Hungary, one of the oldest wheat coun- 

 tries, the acreage has increased even since 

 1884, from 6,797,800 acres that year to 

 9,474,415 acres in 1908. In European 

 Russia it has increased from 39,711,200 

 acres in 1894 to 62,766,700 acres in 1908. 

 In smaller countries the acreage increases 

 have been as foUows: Roumania, 2,903,700 

 acres (1886) to 4,452,000 acres (1908) ; 

 Bulgaria, 2,167,200 acres (1897) to 2,422,- 

 700 acres (1908) ; Servia, 783,500 acres 

 (1893) to 931,300 acres (1908). 



Likewise have the acre yields increased. 

 In the United Kingdom, where farming is 

 so intensive that it would seem hardly pos- 

 sible in late years to get anything more 

 from the soil, nevertheless, the yield has 

 increased during the past ten years almost 

 2 bushels. In France it has increased over 

 2 bushels in the same period, in Austria 3 

 bushels, and in Germany the astonishing 

 amount of 5.2 bushels. 



WILL FUTURE PRODUCTION EQUAL OR EXCEED 

 THE DEMAND? 



Future demand, of course, depends upon 

 the population and per capita consump- 



tion. At the outset, it may be remarked 

 that the increase in our future population, 

 as stated by some parties, appears to be 

 much over-estimated. 



The census population figaires for con- 

 tinental United States show that, starting 

 with an increase of nearly 12,000,000 from 

 1870 to 1880, the succeeding increases have 

 been rather constantly about 1,000,000 more 

 for each ten years than for the preceding 

 ten years. At this rate of gain, beginning 

 with a commonly estimated popvilation of 

 90,000,000 for 1910, this being an increase 

 of 14,000,000 over that of the preceding 

 census, the figures for 1950 should be about 

 156,000,000. Allowing for a considerably 

 higher rate of increase, howeyer, we may, 

 for safer calculation, assume it to be 160,- 

 000,000. 



The home consumption of wheat per 

 capita in this country, including seed and 

 wheat flour (at 4^ bushels per barrel), has 

 been as follows : 1870, 5.02 bushels ; 1880, 

 5.52 bushels ; 1890, 5.49 bushels ; 1900, 5.11 

 bushels. The same is estimated to have 

 been about 6.39 bushels in 1906 and 6.34 

 bushels in 1908. There has been much 

 fluctuation, and the figures may settle at 

 about 6 bushels for 1910 or perhaps more. 

 Anyway, there has been apparently an in- 

 crease of about 1 bushel in our per capita 

 consumption since 1870. We may suppose 

 an equal increase in the equal period of 

 the next forty years, making 7 bushels for 

 1950, though it may be considerably less. 



At the rate of 7 bashels per capita a pop- 

 ulation of 160,000,000 will require 1,120,- 

 000,000 bushels of wheat. This amount 

 taken from the production of 1,600,000,000 

 bushels above estimated for that year, and 

 which is shown to be very conservative, 

 leaves a surplus of 480,000,000 bushels. 

 Some predictions of our future population 

 have placed it much higher than 160,000,- 

 000 for 1950, one making it as high as 200,- 



