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SCIENCE 



[N. S. Vol. XXXII. No. 814 



000,000. Supposing this last to be correct, 

 at 7 bushels per capita, that population 

 would require 1,400,000,000 bushels, leav- 

 ing still a surplus of 200,000,000 bushels-. 

 Again, if we assume that there will be a 

 greater increase in per capita consumption 

 resulting in as much as 8 bushels by 1950, 

 the amount required at home at this rate 

 would be 1,280,000,000 bushels, leaving a 

 surplus of 320,000,000 bushels. Supposing 

 both contentions of the larger increases in 

 population and consumption should be 

 true, which is extremely improbable, the 

 demand would just equal the supply. 



POSSIBLE INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IN OTHER 

 COUNTRIES 



A complete view of the situation as to 

 future wheat supply requires some consid- 

 eration of world production, even though 

 our own production may be more than suf- 

 ficient for home demand. Except in un- 

 usual instances, prices, export, etc., are 

 affected by world conditions. It is an im- 

 portant question whether we may continue 

 to expect an occasional surplus in the 

 world's crop. 



There are only three regions that, for 

 many years, will have any considerable 

 part in furnishing a world surplus. All 

 other countries will, at most, no more than 

 supply themselves. These regions are (1) 

 the plains of North America; the "black 

 earth" of eastern Europe and including a 

 large indefinite area in Siberia, and (3) 

 Argentina. 



The most important of these regions, for 

 the present, is in North America, and a 

 large part of it lies outside of the United 

 States in Canada. Canadian production 

 is of particular importance to us, as it 

 offers a near source of supply in case of a 

 possible temporary shortage of our own 

 crop. 



A careful study of the conditions in 



Canada reveals a possibility in increased 

 production far ahead of any other present 

 exporting country. Outside of Manitoba 

 wheat production has only fairly begun, 

 and yet the entire production can be made 

 as large as that of the United States at 

 present. The undeveloped resoiirces of 

 Alberta and Saskatchewan are very great. 

 These two provinces and Manitoba are of 

 chief present importance in grain produc- 

 tion. The available farm area of the two 

 larger provinces, based upon reports of 

 provincial officials, is about 250,000,000 

 acres out of a total land area of 310,000,000 

 acres. This farm land would furnish a 

 similar proportion for wheat as now em- 

 ployed in Minnesota and Kansas, or about 

 one ninth of the area. This should be par- 

 ticularly capable of attainment because of 

 the impossibility of any considerable com 

 production. One ninth of this farm area 

 will furnish a wheat area of almost 28,000,- 

 000 acres. Manitoba employs now almost 

 3,000,000 acres. A conservative estimate, 

 therefore, may be made, in round numbers, 

 of 30,000,000 acres as the possible wheat 

 acreage for these three provinces in 1950. 

 The present average yield per acre of both 

 spring and winter wheat for the three 

 provinces, calculated from previous ten- 

 year records, appears to be about 22 bush- 

 els, which should increase to at least 25 

 bushels. This rate of yield would allow a 

 total annual production of 750,000,000 

 bushels, of which over 600,000,000 bushels 

 would be an increase over present produc- 

 tion. This possibility leaves out the in- 

 creases that will occur in older provinces 

 and tTie possible production in northeast- 

 ern British Columbia and the Northwest 

 Territory. 



The possibility of wheat cultivation even 

 in northern Alberta is not a matter of the- 

 ory, but has been fully tested. In the year 

 1908, 35,000 bushels of wheat were already 



