NOVEMBEE 11, 1910] 



SCIENCE 



673 



position, while only so many would be dropped 

 from the thousand as are accounted for by the 

 variable error. In an increasing scientific 

 population, however, the standard of the thou- 

 sand would become higher. If there were an 

 increase of ten per cent, in the number of 

 scientific men in the course of seven years, 

 then there should be 110 of the same rank as 

 the first hundred in the thousand of 1903 and 

 1,100 of the same rank as the thousand. A 

 man in the lower part of the list who main- 

 tained his absolute position would lose nearly 

 a hundred places in relative position, and, 

 apart from the variable error of position, 91 

 of those in the thousand would drop to the 

 eleventh hundred. As a matter of fact the 

 average loss in position was 113 places, and 

 the number dropped from the list was 46 in 

 excess of those accounted for by the variable 

 error. According to this argument, the in- 

 crease in the number of scientific men of 

 standing in seven years would be from 5 to 

 11 per cent., or about one half the increase of 

 the population. There has certainly been no 

 increase in the number of scientific men of 

 standing commensurate with the increase in 

 the instructo/s, students and endowments of 

 our universities, with the larger appropriations 

 for scientific work under the government, or 

 with the new foundations for research. 



Table V. gives the gains and losses of the 

 thousand scientific men of the list of 1903 

 (apart from the 68 who died or removed from 

 the country) in reference to their standing 



and their present ages. It thus appears that 

 in each hundred of the thousand the men were 

 more likely to lose in position than to gain, 

 but that those in the first hundred lost the 

 least and those in the upper hundreds lost less 

 than the average. Of those in the first hun- 

 dred 44 gained in position and 46 lost, the 

 average loss being 53 places. They were not 

 subject to the competition of an increasing 

 population, and only seven men not on the list 

 of 1903 attained places among the second 

 hundred. It thus appears that even men of 

 established reputation do not maintain their 

 positions, they do not advance as they grow 

 older, and death removes more eminent men 

 whose places they might fill. The losses tend 

 to increase as the men are of lower rank, but 

 the differences are not considerable. The 

 variable error being 305 places, the probable 

 error of the figures given in the table is rather 

 large. 



In the case of age it is clear that the 

 younger men in the thousand are likely to 

 improve their positions, while the older men 

 are likely to fall back. The nine men now 

 under thirty-five have, on the average, gained 

 364 places and the 77 now between thirty-five 

 and thirty-nine have, on the average, gained 

 144 places. Of those under forty, 54 gained 

 and 32 lost. In the next five-year period men 

 are about as likely to lose as to gain, whereas 

 older men are likely to lose. There appears 

 to be a plateau between the ages of those now 

 between fifty-five and seventy-four; in the 



TABLE V. GAINS AND LOSSES IN BETBBENOB TO POSITION AND TO AGE 



