4 



SCIENCE 



[N. S. Vol. XXXIII. No. 836 



portations of riclier ores, especially from 

 Spain, helped to raise the furnace yield. 



France in 1908 produced 10,087,000 tons, 

 of which 88 per cent, was mined in French 

 Lorraine of the same type as the main 

 German supplies. The ore ranged from 

 33 to 40 per cent. — again not far from the 

 Clinton ores of Alabama. We are justi- 

 fied, therefore, in saying that the largest 

 part of the output of the next three pro- 

 ducing countries of the world is about the 

 same as the lowest grade of lump ore, 

 which can be profitably mined under pres- 

 ent conditions in the United States. 

 When, therefore, we come to estimate com- 

 parative reserves we must realize that iu 

 the Lake Superior region — our greatest 

 producer — we pay no attention to-day to 

 ores, which are, nevertheless, much richer 

 than those of Great Britain and conti- 

 nental Europe. 



In the opening sentences I spoke of the 

 anxiety which was felt a few years ago 

 regarding the reserves upon which the in- 

 dustry would of necessity rely for its fu- 

 ture. ' I mentioned Mr. Carnegie's re- 

 marks in 1902 at the University of St. 

 Andrews. But he was not the only one 

 who discussed this question and now in 

 referring to one or two other forecasts, I 

 think you will have in mind some of the 

 fundamentals which establish a correct 

 point of view. 



In 1905 Professor Tornebohm, the emi- 

 nent and greatly esteemed former director 

 of the Geological Survey of Sweden, as- 

 signed to us a reserve of only one billion 

 and sixty millions of tons. Obviously, at 

 an annual production of over fifty millions 

 this reserve would only last twenty years. 

 The future thus looked still darker than 

 when seen through Mr. Carnegie's spec- 

 tacles. Much opposition arose at once, 

 however, to Professor Tornebohm 's data, 

 because from them had been omitted the 



red hematites of Alabama, which can be 

 very accurately estimated and which of 

 themselves are thought by competent ob- 

 servers to have a half billion tons for the fu- 

 ture. Additional modifications must also 

 be introduced when we properly appre- 

 ciate the downward tendency of workable 

 percentages. The lower the percentage of 

 iron which we require in the product of 

 our mines, the greater the amount of ore 

 which at once becomes available. This is 

 peculiarly true of iron, because of its very 

 wide, general distribution. 



In 1907 in anticipation of the Interna- 

 tional Geological Congress of 1910, which 

 was to be held in Stockholm, the Swedish 

 committee of arrangements began the 

 preparation of a series of estimates of iron 

 reserves in all the countries of the globe. 

 Geologists familiar with local conditions 

 were requested to prepare the figures each 

 for his own country. It fell to the speaker 

 to start the collection of American esti- 

 mates and much aid was afforded by sev- 

 eral of the largest companies owning re- 

 serves. Shortly thereafter, however, the 

 interest in the conservation of natural re- 

 sources sprang up and Dr. C. W. Hayes, 

 of the United States Geological Survey, 

 was empowered to use all the resources of 

 this great organization in assembling data 

 on iron. In this way figures as reliable as 

 can be expected are now available. We 

 learn from them that we may consider 

 three and one half billion tons of fifty per 

 cent, ore as assured in the Lake Superior 

 region. Of this great total three billions, 

 one hundred millions are in the Mesabi 

 range of Minnesota. At thirty millions of 

 tons per anniun, the present output of Min- 

 nesota, we have a reserve for a century. 



On the other hand, if we drop to 40 per 

 cent, or slightly below, still, however, re- 

 maining a few per cent, above the Alabama 

 grade, the drill holes show above depths no 



