14 



SCIENCE 



[N. S. Vol. XXXIII. No. 836 



be slight prospect of change in this item. 

 In any event the reductions from this 

 cause can not compensate the falling off in 

 the yield of iron as foretold above. 



Suppose iron goes up in cost — other con- 

 ditions of our daily life remaining the same 

 — transportation and all manufacturing 

 based on machinery would become more 

 expensive; and less freely carried on. 

 Undoubtedly an appreciable pressure 

 would be developed to turn our people 

 back to the rural districts and to tilling 

 the soil for a livelihood. The tendency 

 under the stimulus of manufacturing de- 

 velopment has been the other way. The 

 migration of late years has been toward, 

 not from the cities. Shall we perhaps find 

 in the long run, in the increasing cost of 

 iron and steel a partial solution of a much 

 vexed problem? Will the cry "back to 

 the soil ' ' receive support in a way not gen- 

 erally anticipated? The question is an 

 interesting one for speculation. 



The general inference regarding copper 

 is that the pinch of higher cost of produc- 

 tion will be felt sooner than in the case of 

 iron. We have no knowledge of such en- 

 during reserves of copper ores as we have 

 of iron. On the other hand, copper, de- 

 spite its vast importance, is not the funda- 

 mental necessity that is iron. It is used 

 in less quantity in machinery and its in- 

 crease in cost would less vitally affect man- 

 ufacturing industries based on machinery. 

 Advancing cost would cut it out of much 

 ornamental work of inferior esthetic merit. 

 The most serious effect would be found in 

 raising the expenses of service in the appli- 

 cations of electricity. Electrical transpor- 

 tation, telegraphy and telephony would be 

 more expensive than to-day. Unless wire- 

 less methods of transmission eliminate cop- 

 per, or unless some discovery in the domain 

 of physics which we do not now foresee 

 furnishes a substitute for the omnipresent 



copper wire of to-day, we may find our- 

 selves face to face with some curtailment 

 in these modern aids to the easy conduct 

 of life's affairs. If in the course of sev- 

 eral centuries the falling off in supply and 

 the growth in population should raise cop- 

 per to relatively high figures, we may won- 

 der if a return in a way to the conditions 

 of the middle ages will not result. Will 

 copper then become to a greater degree 

 than now the basis of skilled handiwork? 

 Will the by-gone craftsmanship be revived 

 and with a lessening total output shall we 

 see an advance in artistic skill? In fact, 

 if the vast development of machinery and 

 the huge output of metallic objects at low 

 cost — a condition so characteristic of to-day 

 — should be checked or curtailed, would 

 not hand-work on more valuable mediums 

 of expression be restored. It is not alto- 

 gether unreasonable to anticipate fewer 

 objects and higher crafts in their produc- 

 tion. 



The cases of lead and zinc are even more 

 emphatic than that of copper. We have 

 still fewer assured reserves and the pinch 

 of increasing cost may manifest itself at an 

 earlier date. The two metals are not, how- 

 ever, quite such vital factors in modern life 

 as is copper and the larger effects would be 

 less apparent. Zinc is a necessary com- 

 ponent in the manufacture of brass, which 

 industry absorbs the greater part of the 

 copper output. A curtailment of either 

 lead or zinc would cause inconvenience, 

 but would scarcely occasion fundamental 

 changes. 



Silver will be very seriously affected by 

 a decrease in the output of either copper 

 or lead. Gold will feel these changes in an 

 appreciable but far less degree. There will 

 always be sufficient, however, of each of the 

 precious metals for coinage, and beyond 

 this use their applications, except perhaps 

 in photography, concern luxuries rather 



