424 



SCIENCE 



[N. S. Vol. XXXIII. No. 846 



sand opinions based upon erroneous theories 

 or estimates. 



As a rule our meat is made from corn, and 

 our bread from wheat. An average of the 

 last five or sis years compared with an aver- 

 age of a like period ten years before reveals 

 the following data taken from the Tear Books 

 of the United States Department of Agricul- 

 ture: 



1. The average annual production of corn 

 in the "United States increased during this 

 ten-year period from 207-1 million to 2733 

 million bushels. 



2. The average exportation of corn from 

 the United States decreased from 177 million 

 to 67 million bushels. 



3. Consequently, the average annual supply 

 of corn for our domestic use increased from 

 1897 million to 2666 million bushels — an in- 

 crease of 40 per cent. 



Now, if we keep in mind that every figure 

 here given is based upon an average of at 

 least five years, and also keep in mind that the 

 population of the United States increased 

 only 21 per cent, from 1900 to 1910, then we 

 may well ask, if the supply of corn for home 

 use has increased 40 per cent, and the popula- 

 tion only 21 per cent., what have we done with 

 such an enormous surplus of corn retained in 

 this country? 



A study of the statistics for wheat reveals 

 the following data : 



1. The average annual production of wheat 

 increased during the ten-year period from 

 528 million to 669 million bushels. 



2. Our average exportation of wheat de- 

 creased from 185 million to 110 million 

 bushels. 



3. Consequently, the average annual supply 

 of wheat for our domestic use increased from 

 343 million to 559 million bushels — an in- 

 crease of 63 per cent. 



Here, too, we may well ask, if the supply of 

 wheat for our home use has increased 63 per 

 cent, while the population increase is only 21 

 per cent., what have we done with a retained 

 surplus of wheat amounting to 42 per cent, 

 above the increase in our population? 



Under the Illinois laws about fifteen hun- 



dred township assessors report to the Illinois 

 State Board of Agriculture the acreage of the 

 various important farm crops grown in all the 

 townships of the state. A comparison of two 

 five-year periods, 1895 to 1899 and 1905 to 

 1909, shows that the average area of corn 

 grown in Illinois increased in ten years from 

 6,950,000 to 7,340,000 acres, according to the 

 assessors' returns, working under the same 

 law during this entire period; whereas, ac- 

 cording to the estimates reported by the 

 United States Department of Agriculture, the 

 Illinois corn area has increased from 6,910,000 

 to 9,700,000 acres. In other words, the state 

 assessors report an increase of less than 6 per 

 cent, while the federal report shows an in- 

 crease of more than 40 per cent, in the aver- 

 age Illinois acreage of corn. 



If we consider our three great grain crops, 

 corn, oats and wheat, the Illinois state report 

 shows the total average production to have 

 decreased by 1 per cent, during this ten-year 

 period, but the federal crop report credits 

 Illinois with an increase of 41 per cent, in her 

 production of grain during the same period. 



For 1910 the Illinois State Board reports 

 281 million bushels of corn; while the U. S. 

 Department reports 415 million bushels as the 

 Illinois crop. Likewise the Ohio state officials 

 report 105 million bushels, and the federal 

 estimate credits the state of Ohio with 145 

 millions of corn produced in 1910. 



All of these comparisons seem to reveal the 

 influence of a strong spirit of optimism on the 

 part of the federal department of agriculture, 

 which, however, is supported neither by the 

 assessors' report nor by the existence of any 

 important reserve supplies, nor by the in- 

 creased price of grain and meat and the high 

 cost of plain living. In the last report of 

 the United States Secretary of Agriculture it 

 is stated that the value of our agricultural 

 products rose from 4417 million dollars in 

 1898 to 8926 million dollars in 1910— an in- 

 crease of more than 100 per cent, in twelve 

 years; but shall we rejoice or weep when we 

 consider that this enormous increase in value 

 is not due to improvement of soil but to the 

 estimated increase of acreage in crops and to 



