570 



SCIENCE 



[N. S. Vol. XXXIII. No. 850 



with the lists of names in which the stand- 

 ards for admission to the lists are higher — 

 that is, specially selected groups of the more 

 eminent. Massachusetts also shows an extra 

 merit when science or literature is alone con- 

 sidered, but this is merely an accentuation of 

 some cause or causes which have enabled her 

 to lead, no matter what type of success be the 

 criterion. 



There is also to be seen a probably signifi- 

 cant gain in the ratios for Massachusetts 

 from the census of 1790 to 1850. A further 

 study of this special phenomenon might de- 

 velop some interesting conclusions. The ratio 

 also rises when only those in Lippincott's are 

 considered who have received adjectives of 

 praise. JSTine tenths of the persons named in 

 this dictionary are given a passing notice by 

 the editors and nothing critical is said of their 

 lives or their work beyond the barest record. 

 About one tenth receive such adjectives of 

 praise as " celebrated," " illustrious," " emi- 

 nent," " famous," " noted," etc. 



A priori we may suppose that these repre- 

 sent an extra superior group as compared with 

 the other nine tenths. A posteriori the suppo- 

 sition is verified, because how else can be 

 explained the rise in the ratio for Massachu- 

 setts from 2.8 to 3.8 ? If this " adjective 

 method " did not select a superior group it 

 would not raise the ratios, or in other words 

 draw it further away from random hazard for 

 which p^l. The more accurately it seizes 

 hold of the right persons and justly expresses 

 real differences dependent upon natural causes 

 the more it will raise this ratio. One can now 

 see how it is possible in this way, and in simi- 

 lar ways, to actually test the validity of any 

 method of selection. Its value depends, among 

 other things, upon its ability to raise, or 

 lower, a ratio in a proper degree, suitable to 

 the case in hand, so that the ratios shall fit in, 

 and harmonize with other ratios and other re- 

 sults. 



If, for instance, the " space method," or the 

 selecting the 234 men who have had the most 

 space allotted to them in the dictionary, had 

 not raised the Massachusetts ratio from 2.8 to 

 any more than say 2.9 or 3.0 we might be 



justified in concluding that this method was 

 inferior in accuracy to the " adjective 

 method." As it turns out, it raises the ratio 

 to 3.6. So one suspects that the " space 

 method " is not quite as accurate as the " ad- 

 jective method," since it does not raise the 

 ratio as much though it deals with a smaller 

 group. Of course one instance like this does 

 not decide anything. I merely give it as an 

 illustration of the ways in which historiom- 

 etry may proceed. 



I have also essayed a new method, namely 

 selecting from Lippincott's a list composed of 

 all those Americans whose biographies have 

 been written and published in separate works. 

 This constitutes a very small and presumably 

 correspondingly select group, 129 in number. 

 The ratio for Massachusetts is here seen to 

 rise to 3.9, practically the maximum. It 

 should of course do so if the method is sound 

 and is successful in seizing hold of the right 

 men. This may prove a very accurate, prac- 

 tical and rapid method of objectively listing 

 great men in ancient or modern history, sub- 

 ject of course to such limitations and adjust- 

 ments as special problems may require. 



It can be seen that the general raising of the 

 ratios is in no way dependent on the diction- 

 ary containing a large number of clergymen 

 and writers. As a matter of fact, more than a 

 third of the names are those of lawyers, bank- 

 ers, merchants, politicians, government offi- 

 cials, soldiers, manufacturers and engineers. 

 Here by narrowing the list from 1,266 to 232 

 and dealing with only a small group, we raise 

 the ratio from 2.4 to 3. It might be supposed 

 by some that a greater attention is shown 

 Massachusetts by writers of books, biographies 

 and histories because these writers live in the 

 neighborhood. " Lippincott's Biographical 

 Dictionary," however, is published in Phila- 

 delphia. Still it may be influenced by previ- 

 ous writings and earlier biographical diction- 

 aries published in the neighborhood of Boston. 

 If this is so to any appreciable extent then we 

 should expect the ratio for Massachusetts to 

 fall when present-day persons are graded by 

 methods which have either nothing or little 

 to do with historical traditions. 



