August 14, 1914] 



SCIENCE 



221 



of its admirable researches to a multitude of 

 highly productive and praiseworthy com- 

 mercial organizations I but whether the in- 

 ventions so promoted and protected by pa- 

 tent laws will result on the whole advan- 

 tageously to society or to inventors is a 

 question which remains to be determined. 

 It is well known that as a rule inventors are 

 a sadly disappointed class; and when we 

 consider the great waste of effort and re- 

 sources entailed by patent litigation, it ap- 

 pears plain that the aggregate of rewards 

 arising from the egoism of the inventor is 

 much less than the aggregate of rewards 

 arising from the altruism of the investi- 

 gator. "We may look forward, perhaps, to 

 an epoch of more advanced social develop- 

 ment when the functions of patent offices 

 will be abolished except as they may serve 

 to register important improvements and 

 discoveries. In the meantime, altruistic re- 

 search agencies may not be properly ex- 

 pected to perfect inventions, to secure let- 

 ters-patent for them, to defend inventors in 

 suits at law or to exploit suecessftd inven- 

 tions.^ 



Another popular illusion which every- 

 where retards the evolution of research insti- 

 tutions is more specious and hence more 

 dangerous than those just referred to. It 

 involves aU of the fallacies which have thus 

 far rendered the highly developed mathe- 

 matical theory of probabilities of limited 

 application in the ordinary affairs of life. 

 It manifests itself in various forms, but 

 most coromonly finds expression in the no- 

 tion that research establishments should 

 solicit suggestions, or busy themselves in 



2 There is little doubt that an endowed organi- 

 zation, and possibly a state organization, for the 

 promotion of inventions, could now be established 

 with great advantage alike to society and to in- 

 ventors. There are plenty of able inventors who 

 would be glad to work on salaries and to give as 

 freely to society the results of their labors as in- 

 vestigators do. 



casting drag-nets in the wide world of 

 thought, or in dredging, as biologists would 

 say, with the expectation that out of the 

 vast slimy miscellanies thus collected there 

 will be found by the aid of a corps of pa- 

 tient examiners some precious sediments of 

 truth. By this method it is assumed that 

 the entire range of possibilities for dis- 

 covery will be included; and it is likewise 

 assumed that no idea of value can escape 

 the superhuman intelligence attributed to 

 the examiners. There is thus available at 

 last, the argument runs, a comprehensive 

 way to utilize for any given case even the 

 small soul of truth contained in that an- 

 cient and cautiously wise aphorism, "there 

 may be something in it"; and the doors 

 are thus opened also to the hosts of ama- 

 teurs, dilettanti and paradoxers who stand 

 ready to waste the time and the resources 

 of research establishments in the pursuit 

 of the obvious, the futile and the demon- 

 strably unattainable.^ Two simple facts 

 will suffice to dispel this illusion. The first 

 of these is that important advances in 

 knowledge are far more likely to issue from 

 the expert than from the inexpert in re- 

 search. Indeed, the probability of extend- 

 ing knowledge by organizations conducted 

 by disciplined investigators is so much 

 greater than the probability of extending 

 knowledge by the drag-net method that we 

 not only may but should ignore the latter 

 in comparison with the former. The second 

 fact is that no competent examiner is will- 

 ing to spend his energies in raking over the 



3 Along with the amateurs and the dilettanti, 

 who are not without certain commendable charac- 

 teristics, there are to be counted also in great 

 numbers cranks, quacks, charlatans, aliens and 

 mountebanks. The paradoxers include especially 

 are-triseetors, circle-squarers and perpetual-motion 

 men and women. It is amazing how easy it is for 

 an individual of any of these classes to get letters 

 of introduction to research establishments from 

 our otherwise highly esteemed contemporaries. 



