THECUBAREVIEW 31 



SUGAR REVIEW 



^^ hat IS left over for October will be supplemented as visible supply by the balance of the 

 Cuba, Porto Rico, Hawaiian and Philippine Crops, and by a certain indefinite amount of full 

 duty sugar, together with the maturing Louisiana cane crops and the domestic beet crop. 

 Altogether, if placed on the market for sale, quite sufficient, by our figuring, for the United 

 States supplies to consumers to January next. 



There is no reason to fear any excessive demand from Great Britain. She has secured, ac- 

 cording to our information 600,000 to 1,000,000 tons of all kinds of sugar for her consumption 

 to March or April next, and is only in need of some immediate supplies of refined sugar from 

 the United States to meet her deficiencies of supplies of white sugar. 



Great Britain's refineriers have capacity of about 80.000 tons per month, whereas Great 

 Britain will probably require about 40,000 tons per month more, and this amount she may 

 continue to take from the United States. She can have it without particular detriment to our 

 visible supplies, if such supjilies are not \^^thheld from market. 



The domestic beet crop, and Louisiana cane crop, the most important of such supplies are 

 likely to be pressed for sale as fast as made; present values of Cuba sugars are maintained at 

 or near one cent a pound above the new Cuba crop January-March values. 



As stated before the war indirectly and Great Britain "directly are largely responsible for 

 the probably extra cost of sugar to United States consumers during the last half of this year 

 to extent of over $100,000,000. Is there any way by which such war penaltv can be reduced 

 by reduction in prices back to near normal values? Apparently only by acts of the parties 

 which have produced it. 



A cessation of the war and the release of the beet crops of Europe would do it speedily, but 

 the action of the British Government in buying sugar supplies so far ahead is an indication 

 that war is not to end this year, or early next year. 



The possible release of some of the coming beet crop sugars of Europe to the Ignited States 

 is by no means an impossibility. 



We mentioned in our last months' review the location of the beet fields in the several coun- 

 tries at war, and l)y following the tramp of the armies it will be seen that several of these 

 fields are already trampled under foot of armies, and that little of those crops remian to be 

 harvested. There are other crops however that are not touched thus far. 



The crop of Germany promises to be secured to near its full extent . Labor has been brought 

 from Belgium for this pm'pose and by pressing the young men of 16 to 22 years into the work, 

 as well as prisoners of war also. 



What Austria will lose in crops may be made up by Germany, and it is not impossible that 

 a surplus will remain for shipment to neutral countries. Even the United States, if Great 

 Britain will consent to keep her navy neutral on such shipment considering Great Britain's 

 indebtedness to our consumers, and her need of further supplies from the United States, it 

 maj' not be too far fetched to believe that on the proper application she might not throw 

 obstacles in our way. 



Also, some German sugar may find its way here via neutral countries. Holland already 

 has proposed to us to make offers for her refined sugars, in belief that her present prohibition 

 of such exports will be removed with the harvesting of her new crop. 



Of course all these surmises are only surmises which cannot develop until the European 

 beet crops are being harvested in October to January, but still in a review of this kind we 

 should not omit such possibilities as interfering with the maintenance of sugar prices in the 

 United States at 3c per lb. above the normal for any length of time. 



Such enormous profits to Cuban planters cannot but^e considered by them from the basis 

 of "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." 



We note that some estates in Cuba have already acted in this proverb in their sales of new 

 crop Cubas to the eager buyers of the United Kingdom. 



Thus far our refineries take no interest in future supplies, and incline to buy only for present 

 necessities, as they can turn the raws into refined, and sell the production for export. 



The United States domestic refined trade is now very fully supplied for a month to come 

 until domestic beet is available. Cane granulated is llic, less 2So, by all our refiners for 

 domestic use, and at 6c. per lb. net cash f . o. b. in bond for export. A maintenance of these 

 quotations for any length of time depends almost entirely on the amount of the current pro- 

 duction that can be sold abroad. 



The immediate future indicated a reduction of values of both raws and refined, but such 

 can be followed later on by some recovery if supplies should be withheld largely from the 

 market. 



This latter problem can be solved only by the producers and holders of sugar after present 

 in-hand supplies of refiners are exhausted and new buying to a considerable extent must he 

 resumed. 



WILLET & GRAY. 

 September 16, 1914. 



