Septembek 15, 1911] 



SCIENCE 



335 



that a true man of science should have some 

 of the qualities of that fascinating hero of 

 fiction, Mr. Sherlock Holmes, who picks up 

 his clue and follows it unerringly to the 

 triumphant conclusion. Such qualities will 

 do the man of science no possible harm: 

 indeed they will be of the utmost value to 

 him. The point to which I am now calling 

 attention is the change in nature of the op- 

 portunities for using them, which are be- 

 coming every day more confused. Dr. 

 Conan Doyle, in the exercise of his art, 

 keeps our attention fixed on a single trail : 

 he conceals from us by mere omission the 

 numerous trails which cross it. "We admire 

 the skill of the Indian who pursues an 

 enemy through the trackless forest : but his 

 success depends on the simplicity brought 

 by this very tracklessness, and would be 

 imperilled if there were numerous tracks. 

 It may be remarked, however, that there is 

 a still higher sagacity — that of the hound 

 who even among a number of tracks can 

 pick out the right one by scent. Let us 

 imagine for a moment that the scientific 

 man can be endowed in the future, by 

 training or by some new invention, with 

 a faculty of this kind, so that he may un- 

 erringly pursue a single trail even when it 

 is crossed and recrossed by others. Then 

 in the terms of this metaphor I draw atten- 

 tion to the fact that he has still to deter- 

 mine which is the right trail; and that in 

 general he can only do so by pursuing each 

 in turn to the end. To take an example from 

 a recent scientific anecdote : I relate the 

 story as I was told it, and even if incorrect 

 in detail it will serve its purpose as a par- 

 able. The Eontgen rays were discovered 

 originally by their photographic action, 

 but afterwards it was found that they 

 would render a screen of calcium tungstate 

 phosphorescent. I was told that this dis- 

 covery had been made in this wise: Mr. 

 Edison had a large collection of different 



chemicals, and a number of assistants: he 

 set his assistants busily to work to try each 

 substance in turn until the right one was 

 found. Now this is not only a genuine 

 scientific process, but it is the fundamental 

 process. Let it be frankly admitted that 

 our instincts are against it. We should 

 much prefer to hear that some hypothesis 

 had pointed the way, even a false hypothe- 

 sis such as actually led to the discovery of 

 the possibility of achromatism in lenses. 

 Or if w,emory had played a part : The other 

 day Professor Fowler identified the spec- 

 trum of a comet's tail with one taken in 

 his laboratory, of which he had some 

 recollection, and our human sympathies 

 fasten at once on this idea of recollec- 

 tion as a praiseworthy element in the dis- 

 covery. Nay, even mere accident appeals 

 to us more than brutal industry: if Mr. 

 Edison had wandered into his laboratory, 

 picked up a bottle at random, and found it 

 answer his purpose, I venture to say that 

 we should have instinctively awarded him 

 more merit: there would have been just a 

 chance that he was inspired. Let us by all 

 means welcome hypothesis, memory, in- 

 spiration and accident whenever and 

 wherever they will help us: but they may 

 fail, and then our only resource is to help 

 ourselves by the unfailing method of ex- 

 amining all possibilities. The aid of the 

 others is adventitious and comes, like that 

 of the gods, most readily to those who help 

 themselves. 



The maxim of "leaving no stone un- 

 turned" was enunciated from a rather dif- 

 ferent point of view some dozen years ago 

 by an American geologist, Professor T. C. 

 Chamberlin, of Chicago, in a short paper 

 for students entitled "The Method of 

 Multiple Working Hypotheses."" After 

 recalling how much the march of science 

 in early days was retarded by the tyranny 



' University of Chicago Press, 1897. 



