OCTOBEE 17, 1913] 



SCIENCE 



533 



supply which could be grown at Cambridge 

 and at the Norfolk Agricultural Station, 

 and it is regarded by farmers generally as 

 a very great success. 



The conclusion, therefore, is that a ten- 

 per-cent. difference is well worth measur- 

 ing, that it can not be measured with cer- 

 tainty by the single-plot method, and that 

 it behooves those of us who are concerned 

 with field trials to look to our methods, and 

 to avoid printing figures for single-plot 

 experiments which may very well be mis- 

 leading. Almost every one thinks himself 

 competent to criticize the farmer, who is 

 commonly described as too self-satisfied to 

 acquaint himself with new discoveries, and 

 too conservative to try them when they are 

 brought to his notice. Let us examine the 

 real facts of the ease. Does the farmer 

 ignore new discoveries? The largely in- 

 creasing practise of consulting the staffs of 

 the agricultural colleges, which has arisen 

 among farmers during the last few years, 

 conclusively shows that he does not ; that he 

 is, in fact, perfectly ready to avail himself 

 of sound advice whenever he can. Is he too 

 conservative to try new discoveries when 

 brought to his notice? The extraordinary 

 demand for seed of the new Archer barley 

 quoted above, and for seed of new varieties 

 generally, the continuous advance in the 

 prices of phosphatic manures, as the result 

 of increased demand by farmers, the trade 

 in Scotch and Irish seed potatoes, all show 

 how ready the farmer is to try new things. 

 The chief danger seems to be that he tries 

 new things simply because they are new, 

 and he may be disappointed if those who 

 are responsible for the new things in ques- 

 tion have not taken pains to ascertain with 

 certainty that they are not only new, but 

 good. Farmers are nowadays in what may 

 be called a very receptive condition. Wit- 

 ness the avidity with which they paid extrav- 

 agant prices for single tubers of so-called 



new, but inadequately tested, varieties of 

 potatoes some years ago, and in a less degree 

 the extraordinary demand for seed of the 

 much-boomed French wheats, and the 

 excitement about nitragin for soil or seed 

 inoculation. Witness, too, the almost uni- 

 versal failure of the new potatoes and 

 French wheats introduced during the boom, 

 and the few eases in which nitragin gave 

 any appreciable result. The farmer who 

 was disappointed with his ten-guinea tuber, 

 his expensive French wheat, or his culture 

 of nitragin can not but be disillusioned. 

 Once bitten, twice shy. He does not readily 

 take advice again. 



Let us, therefore, recognize that the far- 

 mers of the country are ready to listen to us, 

 and to try our recommendations, and let 

 that very fact bring home to us a sense of 

 our responsibility. All that is new is not, 

 therefore, necessarily good. Before we 

 recommend a new thing let us take pains to 

 assure ourselves of its goodness. To do so 

 we must find not only that the new thing 

 produces a greater return per acre, but that 

 the increased return is worth more than it 

 costs to produce, and we must also define 

 the area or the type of soil to which this 

 result is applicable. This implies in prac- 

 tise that each field trial should confine itself 

 to the investigation of only one, or, at most, 

 two, definite points, since five pairs of plots 

 will be required to settle each point; that 

 the experimental results should be reviewed 

 in the light of a thorough knowledge of 

 farm book-keeping, and that accurate notes 

 should be taken of the type of the soil, and 

 the area to which it extends, and of the 

 various meteorological factors which make 

 up the local climate. At present we are not 

 in possession of a sufficient knowledge of 

 farm accountancy, but there is hope that 

 this deficiency will be removed by the work 

 of the Institute for Research in Agriculture 

 Economics, which has recently been founded 



