October 31, 1913] 



SCIENCE 



635 



shows how closely the two agree. The curve 

 representing the distribution of marks is based 

 on approximately 5,000 grades assigned to 

 freshmen in the college of letters and science 

 in the University of Wisconsin." 



Theoretically, then, on the basis of the prob- 

 ability curve, 3 per cent, of the students 

 should receive A-\- (97-100), 7 per cent. A — 

 (93-96), 16 per cent. B+ (89-92), 23 per 

 cent. B— (85-88), 23 per cent. 0+ (81-84), 

 16 per cent. C — (7Y-80), 5 per cent. D + 

 (73-76), 3 per cent. D— (70-72) and 4 per 

 cent, failure. The percentage of failures is 

 largely arbitrary and should perhaps be higher 

 than here indicated. 



The problem of distribution, however, is 

 more complex in the upper classes after con- 

 siderable elimination has occurred during the 

 freshman and sophomore years. Two extreme 

 positions have been held. Professor Meyer' 

 holds that the nature of the distribution in 

 upper classes is the same in spite of the elimi- 

 nation, that although the curve becomes con- 

 tracted at the base it remains the same in 

 shape. President Foster,' on the other hand, 

 holds that the curve should have a very abrupt 

 drop from the middle toward the lower end, 

 on the belief that the university rigorously se- 

 lects only those in the upper half of the curve. 

 Neither position is entirely justifiable, for the 

 reason that there is elimination during the 

 freshman and sophomore years largely on the 

 basis of intellectual fitness, and that this elim- 

 ination is not exclusively from the lower half 

 or from the lowest quarter, but is distributed 

 over a large portion of the curve. The only 

 way to determine the form of the curve is by 

 finding the actual facts in the case. That is, 

 in what part of the curve does the elimination 

 occur, and how many are eliminated at each 

 point ? 



I have computed this on the basis of the 

 curve in Fig. 1 by taking the group of stu- 



° Dearborn, W. F., "The Relative Standing of 

 Pupils in the High School and in the University," 

 Bulletin of the University of Wisconsin, No. 312, 

 plate I. 



'Meyer, M., Science, N. S., 28: 246-250. 



'Foster, W. T., Science, N". S., 35: 887-889. 



dents there represented and finding out which 

 ones dropped out and what their average 

 grades were. Fig. 2 starts with the probabil- 



ity curve and shows what the shape of it is 

 after the elimination in the first two years. 

 The curve shows that elimination is greatest 

 at the lower extreme and gradually becomes 

 less up to the grade of 93, above which there 

 is almost no elimination. 



S^S t,t-72 7}-7l T7-SCI SIS* SSfs ef-fl f3-9i fT-. 



Fig. 2 



Theoretically, on the basis of this modified 

 curve, the distribution of grades in the upper 

 two years should be as follows: 4 per cent, of 

 the students should receive A +, 10 per cent. 

 A — , 20 per cent. B +, 24 per cent. B — , 22 



Fig. 3 



