February 8, 1889.] 



SCIENCE. 



107 



quadrant (south-east) of the low-pressure area, at a certain distance 

 from the centre of the " low " as marked on the weather-map, in 

 certain regions of the country and in certain months of the year, 

 and in groups having parallel paths of progression and at dis- 

 tances between of but a few miles. 



Official tornado-predictions began at the Signal Office, experi- 

 mentally, on the loth of March, 1884, and were made twice daily 

 at 7 A.M. and 3 P.M., Washington time. The predictions were for 

 certain districts, that portion of the United States embraced be- 

 tween the 77th and I02d meridians being divided into eighteen sec- 

 tions, with arbitrary boundaries. These prognostications terminated 

 on Sept. 20, 1885 ; and during the season embraced by the work, 

 all of the well-defined and most destructive tornadoes were pre- 

 dicted for the districts within which they occurred, from five to 

 eight hours in advance of the reported time of their appearance. 



After May 10, 1886 (the following year), the official predictions 

 were announced to the public in accordance with the following 

 order of the chief signal officer ; " The indications officer will 

 give special attention to conditions favorable to the development of 

 severe local storms and tornadoes. When the reports justify the 

 prediction of these storms, they will form a part of the general in- 

 dications, the prediction to be that conditions are favorable for the 

 occurrence of severe local storms or tornadoes, giving the names of 

 the States where such storms are expected to occur." 



It will be observed, that, upon deciding to make tornado-predic- 

 tions part of the general indications issued daily to the public, the 

 character of the districts was changed from those determined by 

 arbitrary divisions, to those designated by State lines ; in other 

 words, the States themselves. Commencing July i, 1886, a special 

 chart (No. 5, Dew-Point and Local Storm Chart) was made up 

 daily in the indications room of the Signal Office to furnish infor- 

 mation from which tornado-predictions could be made. This chart 

 was discontinued on July i, 1888, and replaced by the general 

 weather-chart from which the regular indications are made. Since 

 Sept. 20, 1885, no official verifications of local storm-predictions 

 have been made, but the results observed from the combined in- 

 dications are in a measure satisfactory. 



Personally, I am of the opinion that the forecasting of conditions 

 favorable to the development of tornadoes, and designating the 

 quadrant of a State in which such conditions shall give rise to local 

 signs that the inhabitants of that section can rely upon, are entirely 

 practicable. By this admission I do not mean to convey the idea 

 that the exact path of the funnel-shaped cloud can be indicated in 

 the despatch, for that would be impossible except by chance. The 

 average width of the tornado-track is only a few hundred yards ; 

 and several of these storms may occur in the same county, with 

 entirely independent paths of destruction, and distinct cloud-for- 

 mations. 



It doubtless appears that the quadrant of a State, especially the 

 larger ones, is a very extensive area to cover with a single tornado- 

 prediction ; but the fact must not be overlooked, that, where the 

 conditions are favorable for tornadoes, storms having various de- 

 grees of tornado violence occur here and there over a very large 

 section of country. Therefore the scheme of local storm predic- 

 tions for State quadrants would seem to possess the elements of 

 success ; for, while the peculiar funnel-shaped cloud might not ap- 

 pear, the conditions would be such that local storms of great vio- 

 lence would occur, and destruction to life and property ensue. 



Although, of course, the area here indicated is quite variable in 

 extent, yet it possesses the decided advantages of definiteness, 

 familiarity to the people who are interested, and brevity of expres- 

 sion in rendering a concise despatch. The local signs of tornado- 

 development are certain, easily observed, and well defined. With 

 the people well informed on these points, and there is no reason 

 why they should not be, the prediction of conditions favorable to 

 local storms, issued from some central meteorological office, would, 

 if successful, supplement the local signs with beneficial results. 

 Failures in the official predictions would not only bring out more 

 distinctly the importance and reliability of local signs, thus creat- 

 ting an interest in their careful observance, but would obviate the 

 occurrence of serious results when wrong predictions were made, 

 as the people would test their trustworthiness by appeal to the 

 " local signs." 



With the appearance of every new problem in science, especially 

 if its solution involves the welfare of mankind or any great number 

 of people, there is made the most strenuous effort to obtain deduc- 

 tive results, without due regard to proper methods of investigation. 

 This is all quite in accordance with the inclination of human nature 

 frequently to want without reason, but the true scientist knows 

 that such demands cannot be complied with in safety. 



People clamor for adequate means to destroy the tornado-cloud 

 by a single blow, sometimes that can act with the rapidity of the 

 electric shock ; and because the article cannot be supplied in order, 

 in quantity, and in style, to suit customers, we are informed by 

 some critics that investigation thus far has been fruitless, and that 

 our efforts to expose the nature and origin of tornadoes are the 

 mere vaporings of a vivid imagination. 



In this age of inventions and glittering geniuses, it is not sur- 

 prising that the sufferings and the necessities of the tornado- 

 stricken people have received attention ; but, as usual, such atten- 

 tion has been more to the profit of the scheme and schemers than 

 to the advantage of those whose credulity made them the victims of 

 an overweening confidence. The festive and irrepressive lightning- 

 rod pedler has appeared upon the scene, and offers with great 

 gusto a beautifully wrought metallic rod, to be attached to buildings 

 with gilt fastenings, terminating near the chimney or cupola with a 

 resplendent brass rooster or other decoration, which, while serving 

 the purpose of a wind-indicator, is, together with the mysterious 

 rod connecting it with the earth, a perfect protection against the 

 tornado-cloud. How the result is obtained is a secret of the inven- 

 tor. The purchaser must not inquire into the nature of this mys- 

 tery, as his success with the venture depends solely upon an abid- 

 ing faith and the requisite shekels. 



There are other plans and devices deserving of a little more 

 recognition, but they are wholly wanting in the essentials that shall 

 make them reliable and capable of practical application at the mo- 

 ment of supreme danger. Among these may be mentioned (i) an 

 arrangement to explode an underground magazine by electricity 

 when the tornado-cloud approaches a town, a mill, or any group of 

 buildings to be protected, the explosion to take place while the 

 cloud is passing over the magazine ; (2) an arrangement of high 

 poles, electrically connected with each other and the earth, and 

 covering about an acre of ground, the top of the poles to be fur- 

 nished with long, sharp metallic points, so as to draw off the elec- 

 tricity of the tornado-cloud, and thus dissipate its energy at once, 

 upon reaching the field uf poles ; (3) a cable to anchor a building 

 safely against the fiercest tornado, and an insurance policy to cover 

 all damages that may occur from the cable giving way ; (4) an ar- 

 rangement to keep kegs of gunpowder in a properly protected place 

 to the south-west of the building, and, upon the approach of the 

 tornado-cloud, courageous men to take out the kegs and place 

 them in the path of the approaching cloud, the powder to be fired 

 at the right time to destroy the cloud ; (5) an arrangement to con- 

 struct immense stand-pipes of heavy wrought iron, about five hun- 

 dred feet high and one hundred feet in diameter, these pipes to be 

 placed upon heavy masonry piers about ten feet high, and so con- 

 structed as to permit a free circulation of the air underneath, and 

 upward through the centre of the pipe. The plan involves the 

 erection of a considerable number of these pipes in the tornado 

 regions, the requisite number to be determined by experience. It 

 is expected that these great pipes will serve as vent-holes for the 

 harmless escape of whirling eddies in the atmosphere, which other- 

 wise might develop into destructive tornadoes. It is further claimed 

 that these pipes may serve to increase the rainfall at any place by 

 causing, artificially, the upward rush of a large volume of air, the 

 moisture contained therein being condensed by the cold of eleva- 

 tion. The initiatory upward movement at the base of the pipe is 

 induced by an open fire built on the ground, within the pipe and 

 near the centre of the base. Of course, the physical principle in- 

 volved is the upv/ard movement of heated air, and the inrush, at 

 the point of inception, of the surrounding cooler air, thus giving 

 rise to an upward How of more or less power, according to the 

 amount of heat applied and the volume of air affected. 



The limits of this paper will not perm.it of a critical discussion of 

 the merits of the various mechanical devices for the destruction of 

 the tornado-cloud, or even to mention them all. Suffice it to say. 



