164 



SCIENCE. 



[Vol. XIII. No. 317 



Buffalo. In both places local researches in taxation and other eco- 

 nomic subjects are also contemplated. The secretary of the Can- 

 ton branch reports that Professor Ely's " Problems of To-Day" is 

 being studied, and that " the members are enthusiastic." 



The branches at Orange, NJ., and Washington, seem to have 

 patterned largely after the Springfield plan. 



These suggestions may furnish some help in the solution of the 

 problem of how to extend the work and influence of the associa- 

 tion, and form centres of economic study in many parts of our 

 country. 



THE WEATHER SERVICE. 



The popular dissatisfaction with the weather predictions as now 

 furnished by the Signal Office has become so great, that a thorough 

 discussion of what is best to be done to improve the service is cer- 

 tainly desirable. Such a discussion has been taking place in the 

 columns of the Boston Post, and from that paper we here quote 

 from a recent letter of Mr. H. H. Clayton of the Blue Hill Meteoro- 

 logical Observatory, Readville, Mass. In an editorial note the 

 Post seems inclined to doubt the wisdom, if not the truth, of the 

 sweeping assertion of the inefficiency of a large part of the Signal 

 Corps made by Gen. Greely in his recent report to Congress, and 

 it was this which called forth Mr. Clayton's letter in which he takes 

 the following ground. 



" Gen. Greely may possibly not be right in his specifications as 

 to exactly what persons are inefficient, but anyone who has studied 

 the history of our weather service in comparison with that of for- 

 eign countries can scarcely doubt but there is great inefficiency 

 somewhere in our service; and it seems right to allow Gen. Greely 

 every assistance possible to improve the service, until there is proof 

 that his efforts are in the wrong direction. The financial support 

 and the facilities afforded our signal service are the best in the 

 world, and it has beeri a continuous surprise to the writer that its 

 efficiency has not been greater. The following figures show in 

 round numbers the amount of money appropriated by various gov- 

 ernments in Europe and America for the support of their weather 

 services: United States, $900,000 ; Great Britain, $80,000; Ger- 

 many, $56,000 ; Russia, $65,000; Austria, $10,000; Switzerland, 

 $6,000 ; France, $40,000. This estimate for France does not in- 

 clude the cost of observations made at a few astronomical observa- 

 tories and mountain stations, which may perhaps increase the total 

 amount expended by France to $60,000. It is thus seen that the 

 amount of money appropriated for its weather service by the United 

 States is ten times greater than that of any country in the world, 

 and is greater than the amount appropriated by all of the govern- 

 ments of Europe combined, including Italy and others not men- 

 tioned above. 



" In Europe a large part of the observers are voluntary observers, 

 or they are men who are engaged in other pursuits, and for a small 

 compensation take meteorological observations, and telegraph them 

 to the central stations. For this reason it has been necessary to 

 adapt the observations somewhat to the convenience of the ob- 

 servers, and it has been impossible to obtain all over Europe a sys- 

 tem of simultaneous observations such as are obtained in the 

 United States. The principal set of observations in the different 

 European countries is taken all the way from 7 A.M. to 9 A.M. ; and 

 on account of the difficulty of arranging codes, and transmitting 

 telegrams from one country to another speaking different lan- 

 guages and having different interests, it is almost noon before the 

 morning observations are in an available form in the different 

 countries for use in making weather predictions, while in the 

 United States it is but little more than an hour after the observa- 

 tions are taken before they are available for use at the central office. 

 Again, owing to their small appropriations, none of the European 

 countries have been able to obtain extensive reports more than 

 once a day from surrounding countries, and thus form a set of rel- 

 atively complete weather maps, such as was previously done three 

 times a day in the United States, and is now done twice a day. 

 The full weather map made by the European weather services is 

 from the morning reports taken between 7 and 9 A.M., though 

 most of the services make supplementary maps fiom less complete 

 reports received in the afternoon and evening. 



" So far, it is seen, then, that our weather service is better 

 equipped, and with far better facilities for effective work, than any 

 service in the world ; but what are the results ? In 1881 the per 

 cent of verification of their weather predictions estimated by the 

 French meteorological office was 82. Since then it has steadily 

 risen, until, in 1888, a verification of 90 per cent was claimed. In 

 the same manner the per cent of success estimated by the London 

 office for Great Britain has risen from 78 per cent in 1882, to 83 per 

 cent in 1887. In Germany the per cent has risen from about 80 per 

 cent ten or twelve years ago, to 88 per cent in 1887. According tO' 

 the official verifications of our signal service, the per cent of success- 

 ful weather predictions rose from about 82 percent in 1875, to 89 in 

 1S83, and then decreased irregularly to 74 per cent in 1887, or 81 

 per cent when corrected for the greater interval covered by the pre- 

 dictions. These signal-service verifications for different years are 

 not strictly comparable, because they were verified according to- 

 varying rules andwith different degrees of care; but the signal 

 service uses them so, and the figures at least agree with the gen- 

 eral impression that there has been no increase in the accuracy of 

 the signal-service predictions during the last fifteen years. Neither 

 are the per cents of verification for one country comparable with- 

 another, since many of them were verified by different rules ; but 

 the results are comparable among themselves, and the steady- 

 increase of accuracy claimed for the European weather predictions 

 is no doubt a fact. The able papers and investigations proceeding 

 from the members of the European bureaus seem sufficient evi- 

 dence that great thought is being given to the improvement of me- 

 teorology, and the advance of meteorological knowledge is un- 

 doubted. 



" The great difficulty with our bureau seems to have been that 

 Congress made it a military rather than a scientific organization. 

 Several years ago a committee appointed to investigate the bureau 

 recommended that it be transferred to a civilian organization, either 

 gradually or suddenly. The National Academy of Science, when 

 consulted on the subject, recommended the same thing ; but for 

 some reason unknown to the writer, Congress has neglected or re- 

 fused to make such a transfer, and last year struck out a clause to- 

 that effect in the agricultural bill. There is scarcely any doubt, 

 that, with some scientific investigation, certain of those storms 

 might have been predicted which in recent years have struck our 

 coast unheralded by the signal service, and left wreck and ruin be- 

 hind, — notably the storm of Jan. 9, 1886, for which no signals were 

 ordered, and in which it is estimated that about 125 vessels were 

 wrecked on the New England coast. Were the weather service of 

 our country in the hands of well-selected scientific men, it would 

 undoubtedly become, as it ought to become with such, splendid 

 facilities as it now has, one of the finest meteorological bureaus in 

 the world. If, however, this cannot be, it is hoped that every facility 

 will be furnished Gen. Greely to make it an effective military or- 

 ganization. Gen. Greely's recent books and excellent ' Report of 

 the Lady Franklin Bay Expedition to the Arctic Regions ' indicate 

 a deep interest in and a knowledge of the needs of meteorology, 

 and he is no doubt sincere in his efforts to increase the efficiency of 

 the Signal Corps. 



" Besides the re-organization of the bureau, an immense advance 

 might be made by organizing local predicting bureaus, where the 

 predicting officers could make a closer study of the conditions sur- 

 rounding them, and gain more time for prediction, instead of, as 

 now, being compelled rapidly to make predictions for almost the 

 entire length and breadth of our land, which is many times larger 

 than any country of Europe, except Russia. The favor with which 

 the Blue Hill predictions, as well as those of others in this and 

 other parts of the United States, have been received, seems proof 

 that local weather bureaus would be at once appreciated by the 

 public." 



MENTAL SCIENCE. 

 The Genesis of Error." 



Professor S. Exner of Vienna contributed to the Congress of 

 German Naturalists and Physicians a very suggestive essay uponi 

 the principles underlying the origin of illusion in man and the ani- 



" From the Revue Scientifique, Jan. 12, i8Sg. 



