THE CUBA REVIEW 



33 



1. There is an abnormal "visible" world surplus of sugar, amounting to about 1,200,000 tons, 

 all congested in the Western Hemisphere. 



2. The "invisible" stocks — that is, sugar in the hands of distributing trades, wholesale and 

 retail — is far below normal. The amount of subnormality is variously estimated at from 300,000 to 

 400,000 tons, and is no doubt due to apprehension of further fall in prices. 



3. The probable world production for 1922 is estimated to be less by from 400,000 to 800,000 tons 

 than the production for 1921. 



4. The consumption for 1922 is likely to be larger than in 1921, and with general economic 

 recovery should exceed production and thus absorb some or all of the surplus. 



.5. The present price of -11.87 for c. and f . raw sugar is the lowest level for 20 years, and is below 

 the cost of production about 90 per cent of both domestic and Cuban sugar. 



6. This low price of sugar has resulted not only from the fear of the large visible surplus but also 

 from the apprehension of financial ditficulties in the sugar market that have been current during the 

 past few months. It has been assumed that in the falling market there might be forced realization of 

 the loans made against existing surplus stocks of sugar; that there would be difficulty in financing 

 the new Cuban crop; that the financial difficulties of the Cuban Government itself might not be 

 readily solved; that there might be bankruptcy amongst sugar producers; that the dissolution of the 

 Cuban Sugar Commission on January 1 might result in a considerable liquidation of sugar. 



7. The Cuban Sugar Commission was dissolved on January 1, and it is now demonstrated that 

 no appreciable forced liquidation is hkely to take place. The banks generally have been well 

 covered down to the low prices of sugar, and there is no likehhood of forced realization. There 

 appears to be sufficient money for financing the new crop wherever it can be produced on a reasonable 

 basis of cost, and the Cuban Government seems to be in a fair way to solve its financial difficulties. 



8. The market is now entirely uninfluenced by any artificial control, and the present low-price 

 level manifestly can not long continue without restricting the production of sugar below the world's 

 demands and again creating high prices. 



Brazil's 1921-22 Sugar Crop 



The Federal Department of Agriculture 

 of Brazil has estimated the sugar crop for 

 1921-22 at 10,214,980 sacks of 60 kilos 

 each, or 526,116 metric tons, as against 

 8,768,600 sacks, or 612,899 metric tons, in 

 1920-21. The estimate by States is as 

 follows : 



Brazil's Sugar Production in 1920-21 and 1921-S2, 

 by States 



States 1920-21 1921-22 



Sacks Sacks 



Para 13,300 13,800 



Maranhao 19,000 20,000 



Ceara 208,300 215,830 



Rio Grande do Norte 153,000 172,3.50 



Parahyba 150,000 145,000 



Pernambuco 2,800,000 3,150,000 



Alagoas 1,000,000 1,250,000 



Sergipe 300,000 320,000 



Bahia 650,000 530,000 



Rio de Janeiro 1,300,000 1,883,000 



Sao Paulo 600,000 720,000 



Minas Geraes 1,650,000 1,780,000 



Matto Grosso 25,000 15,000 



Total ' 8,768,600 10,214,980 



United States Leading Market 

 FOR Exports 



It is to be noted that in 1919 the United 

 States took first place among the pur- 

 chasers of Brazilian sugar and in 1920 

 bought more than double the amount taken 

 by any other country — 58,000 metric tons 

 out of a total national exportation of 109,- 

 000 tons. The following table shows the 



exportation to the principal foreign coun- 

 tries during the last five years: 



Exports of Sugar from Brazil, by Countires of 

 Destination 



Brazil's exports of sugar for the first 

 seven months of the present year totaled 

 80,649 metric tons, an increase of 68% over 

 the 48,143 metric tons exported during the 

 corresponding period of 1920 and of 300% 

 over the seven months' period of 1919, 

 when 21,606 tons were exported. 



The average value per ton for the Jan- 

 uary-July period of the present year was 

 662 milreis as compared with 1,073 milreis 

 in 1920 and 696 milreis in 1919. (The mil- 

 reis averaged about 25 cents United States 

 currency during 1919 and 1920, but in 1921 

 the value declined sharply and averaged 

 only about 14 cents for the first seven 

 months.) 



