564 



SCIENCE. 



[N. S. Vol. VIII. No. 200. 



to protect our coasts and commerce, and 

 millions more on ships, explosives, guns 

 and men ; but we omit to take necessary 

 precautions to supply ourselves with the 

 very first and supremely important muni- 

 tion of war — food. 



To take up the question of food supply in 

 its scientific aspect, I must not confine my- 

 self exclusively to our own national require- 

 ments. The problem is not restricted to 

 the British Isles — the bread-eaters of the 

 whole world share the perilous prospect— 

 and I do not think it out of place if on this 

 occasion I ask you to take with me a wide, 

 general survey of the wheat supply of the 

 whole world. 



Wheat is the most sustaining food grain 

 of the great Caucasian race, which in- 

 cludes the peoples of Europe, United States, 

 British America, the white inhabitants of 

 South Africa, Australasia, parts of South 

 America, and the white population of the 

 European colonies. Of late years the indi- 

 vidual consumption of wheat has almost 

 universally increased. In Scandinavia it 

 has risen 100 per cent, in twenty -five years; 

 in Austro-Hungarj'-, 80 per cent.; in France, 

 20 per cent.; while in Belgium it has in- 

 creased 50 per cent. Only in Eussia and 

 Italy, and possibly Turkey, has the con- 

 sumption of wheat per head declined. 



In 1S71 the bread-eaters of the world 

 numbered 371,000,000. In 1881 the num- 

 bers rose to 416,000,000; in 1891, to 472,- 

 600,000, and at the present time they num- 

 ber 516,500,000. The augmentation of the 

 world's bread-eating population in a geo- 

 metrical ratio is evidenced by the fact that 

 the yearly aggregates grow progressively 

 larger. In the early seventies they rose 

 4,300,000 per annum, while in the eighties 

 they increased by more than 6,000,000 per 

 annum, necessitating annual additions to 

 the bread supply nearly one-half greater 

 than suflBced twenty-five years ago. 



How much wheat will be required to 

 supply all these hungry mouths with bread? 

 At the present moment it is not possible to 

 get accurate estimates of this year's wheat 

 crops of the world, but an adequate idea 

 may be gained from the realized crops of 

 some countries and the promise of others. 

 To supply 516,500,000 bread-eaters, if each 

 bread-eating unit is to have his usual ration, 

 will require a total of 2,324,000,000 bushels 

 for seed and food. AVhat are our prospects 

 of obtaining this amount ? 



According to the best authorities the 

 total supplies from the 1897-98 harvest are 

 1,921,000,000 bushels. The requirement 

 of the 516,500,000 bread-eaters for seed and 

 food are 2,324,000,000 bushels; there is 

 thus a deficit of 403,000,000 bushels, which 

 has not been urgently apparent owing to a 

 surplus of 300,000,000 bushels carried over 

 from the last harvest. Kespecting the 

 prospects of the harvest year just beginning 

 it must be borne in mind that there are no 

 remainders to bring over from last har- 

 vest. We start with a deficit of 1 03,000,000 

 bushels and have 6,500,000 more mouths 

 to feed. It follows, therefore, that one- 

 sixth of the required bread will be lacking 

 unless larger drafts than now seem possible 

 can be made upon early produce from the 

 next harvest. 



The majority of the wheat crops between 

 1882 and 1896 were in excess of current 

 needs, and thus considerable reserves of 

 wheat were available for supplementing 

 small deficits from the four deficient har- 

 vests. But bread-eaters have almost eaten 

 up the reserves of wheat, and, the 1897 har- 

 vest being under average, the conditions 

 become serious. That scarcity and high 

 prices have not prevailed in recent years is 

 due to the fact that since 1889 we have had 

 seven world crops of wheat and six of rye 

 abundantly in excess of the average. These 

 generous crops increased accumulations to- 



