•OCTOBEB 28, 1898.] 



SCIENCE. 



565 



«uch an extent as to obscure the fact that 

 the harvests of 1895 and 1896 were each 

 much below current requirements. Prac- 

 tically speaking, reserves are now ex- 

 hausted, and bread-eaters must be fed from 

 ■current harvests, accumulation under pres- 

 ent conditions being almost impossible. 

 This is obvious from the fact that a harvest 

 equal to that of 1894 (the greatest crop on 

 record, both in acre-yield and in the aggre- 

 ;gate) would yield less than current needs. 



It is clear we are confronted with a colos- 

 .sal problem that must tax the wits of the 

 wisest. "When the bread-eaters have ex- 

 hausted all possible supplies from the 1897- 

 98 harvest there will be a deficit of 103,- 

 000,000 bushels of wheat, with no substi- 

 tution possible unless Europeans can be 

 induced to eat Indian corn or rye bread. 

 Up to recent years the growth of wheat has 

 kept pace with demands. As wheat-eaters 

 increased, the acreage under wheat ex- 

 panded. The world has become so familiar- 

 ized with the orderly sequence of demand 

 and supply, so accustomed to look upon 

 the vast plains of other wheat-growing 

 ■countries as inexhaustible granaries, that, 

 in a light hearted way, it is taken for granted 

 ■that so many million additional acres can 

 be added year after year to the wheat- 

 growing area of the world. We forget that 

 the wheat-growing area is of strictly limited 

 extent, and that a few million acres regu- 

 larly absorbed soon mount to a formidable 

 number. 



The present position being so gloomy, let 

 us consider future prospects. What are the 

 •capabilities as regards available area, eco- 

 nomic conditions and acreage-yield of the 

 wheat-growing countries from whence we 

 now draw our supply ? 



For the last thirty years the United 

 States have been the dominant factor in 

 the foreign supply of wheat, exporting no 

 less than 145,000,000 bushels. This shows 



how the bread-eating world has depended, 

 and still depends, on the United States for 

 the means of subsistence. The entire 

 world's contributions to the food-bearing 

 area have averaged but 4,000,000 acres 

 yearly since 1869. It is scarcely possible 

 that such an average, under existing con- 

 ditions, can be doubled for the coming 

 twenty-five years. Almost yearly, since 

 1885, additions to the wheat-growing area 

 have diminished, while the requirements of 

 the increasing population of the States have 

 advanced, so that the needed American 

 supplies have been drawn from the acreage 

 hitherto used for exportation. Practically 

 there remains no uncultivated prairie land 

 in the United States suitable for wheat- 

 growing. The virgin land has been rapidly 

 absorbed, until at present there is no land 

 left for wheat without reducing the area for 

 maize, hay and other necessary crops. 



It is almost certain that within a genera- 

 tion the ever-increasing population of the 

 United States will consume all the wheat 

 grown within its borders, and will be driven 

 to import, and, like ourselves, will scram- 

 ble for a lion's share of the wheat crop of 

 the world. This being the outlook, exports 

 of wheat from the United States are only 

 of present interest, and will gradually di- 

 minish to a vanishing point. The inquiry 

 may be restricted to such countries as prob- 

 ably will continue to feed bread-eaters who 

 annually derive a considerable part of their 

 wheat from extraneous sources. 



But if the United States, which grows 

 about one-fifth of the world's wheat, and 

 contribute one-third of all wheat exporta- 

 tions, are even now dropping out of the 

 race, and likely soon to enter the list of 

 wheat-importing countries, what prospect 

 is there that other wheat-growing countries 

 will be able to fill the gap, and, by enlarg- 

 ing their acreage under wheat, replace the 

 supply which the States have so long con- 



