568 



SCIENCE. 



[N. S. Vol. VIII. No. 200. 



quantity to enable her to do more than pro- 

 vide for increase of population. 



Germany is a gigantic importer of wheat, 

 her imports rising 700 per cent, in the last 

 twenty-five years, and now averaging 35,- 

 000,000 bushels. Other nations of Europe, 

 also importers, do not require detailed men- 

 tion, as under no conceivable conditions 

 would they be able to do more than supply 

 wheat for the increasing requirements of 

 their local population, and, instead of re- 

 plenishing, would probably diminish, the 

 world's stores. 



The prospective supply of wheat from 

 Argentina and Uruguay has been greatly 

 overrated. The agricultural ai'ea includes 

 less than 100,000,000 acres of good, bad 

 and indifferent laud, much of which is best 

 adapted for pastoral purposes. There is no 

 prospect of Argentina ever being able to de- 

 vote more than 30,000,000 acres to wheat; 

 the present wheat area is about 6,000,000 

 acres, an area that may be doubled in the 

 next twelve years. But the whole arable 

 region is subject to great climatic vicissi- 

 tudes and to frosts that ravage the fields 

 south of the thirty- seventh parallel. Years 

 of systematized energy are frustrated in a 

 few days — perhaps hours — by a single 

 cruelty of Nature, such as a plague of 

 locusts, a tropical rain or a devastating 

 hail storm. It will take years to bring the 

 surplus lands of Argentina into cultivation, 

 and the population is even now insufiicient 

 to supply labor at seed time and harvest. 



During the next twelve years Uruguay 

 may add a million acres to the world's 

 wheat fields ; but social, political and eco- 

 nomic conditions seriously interfere with 

 agricultural development. 



At the present time South Africa is an 

 importer of wheat, and the regions suitable 

 to cereals do not exceed a few million acres. 

 Great expectations have been formed as to 

 the fertility of Mashonaland, the Shire 



Highlands and the Kikuyu plateau, and as 

 to the adaptation of these regions to the 

 growth of wheat. But wheat culture fails 

 where the banana ripens, and the banana 

 flourishes throughout Central Africa, except 

 in limited areas of great elevation. In 

 many parts of Africa insect pests render it 

 impossible to store grain, and without grain- 

 stores there can be little hope of large ex- 

 ports. 



North Africa, formerly the granary of 

 Rome, now exports less than 5,000,000 

 bushels of wheat annually, and these ex- 

 ports are on the decline, owing to increased 

 home demands. With scientific irrigation, 

 Egypt could supply three times her present 

 amount of wheat, although no increase is 

 likely unless the cotton fields of the Delta 

 are diverted to grain growing. In Algeria 

 and Tunis nearly all reclaimed lands are 

 devoted to the production of wine, for which 

 a brisk demand exists. Were this land de- 

 voted to the growth of wheat an additional 

 five million bushels might be obtained. 



The enormous acreage devoted to wheat 

 in India has been declining for some years, 

 and in 1895 over 20,000,000 acres yielded 

 185,000,000 bushels. Seven-eighths of this 

 harvest is required for native consumption, 

 and only one- eighth on an average is avail- 

 able for export. The annual increase of 

 population is more than 3,000,000, demand- 

 ing an addition to the food-bearing lands 

 of not less than 1,800,000 acres annually. 

 In recent years the increase has been less 

 than one-fourth of this amount. 



In surveying the limitations and vicissi- 

 tudes of wheat crops, I have endeavored 

 to keep free from exaggeration, and have 

 avoided insistence on doubtful points. I 

 have done my best to get trustworthy facts 

 and figures, but from the nature of the case 

 it is impossible to attain complete accuracy. 

 Great caution is required in sifting the nu- 

 merous varying current statements respect- 



