October 28, 1898.] 



SCIENCE. 



569 



ing the estimated areas and total produce 

 of wheat throughout the world. The more 

 closely ofBcial estimates are examined, the 

 more defective are they found, and compar- 

 atively few figures are sufBciently well es- 

 tablished tobear the deductions often drawn. 

 In doubtful cases I have applied to the 

 highest authorities in each country, and in 

 the case of conflicting accounts have taken 

 data the least favorable to sensational or 

 panic- engendering statements. In a few in- 

 stances of accurate statistics their value is 

 impaired by age ; but for 95 per cent, of my 

 figures I quote good authorities, while for 

 the remaining 5 per cent. I relj^ on the best 

 commercial estimates derived from the ap- 

 pearance of the growing crops, the acre- 

 age under cultivation and the yield last 

 year. The maximum probable error would 

 make no appreciable diiference in my argu- 

 ment. 



The facts and figures I have set before 

 you are easily interpreted. Since 1871 unit 

 consumption of wheat, including seed, has 

 slowly increased in the United Kingdom to 

 the present amount of six bushels per head 

 per annum ; while the rate of consumption 

 for seed and food by the whole world of 

 bread-eaters was 4.15 bushels per unit per 

 annum for the eight years ending 1878, and 

 at the present time is 4.5 bushels. Under 

 present conditions of low acre yield, wheat 

 cannot long retain its dominant position 

 among the food-stufifs of the civilized world. 

 The details of the impending catastrophe 

 no one can predict, but its general direction 

 is obvious enough. Should all the wheat- 

 growing countries add to their area to the 

 utmost capacity, on the most careful calcu- 

 lation the yield would give us only an ad- 

 dition of some 100,000,000 acres, supplying 

 at the average world-yield of 12.7 bushels 

 to the acre, 1,270,000,000 bushels, just 

 enough to supply the increase of population 

 among bread-eaters till the year 1931. 



At the present time there exists a deficit 



in the wheat area of 31,000 square miles — 

 a deficit masked by the fact that the ten 

 world crops of wheat harvested in the ten 

 years ending 1896 were more than 5 per 

 cent, above the average of the previous 

 twenty-six years. 



When provision shall have been made, 

 if possible, to feed 230,000,000 units likely 

 to be added to the bread-eating populations 

 by 1931 — by the complete occupancy of the 

 arable areas of the temperate zone now 

 partially occupied — where can be grown the 

 additional 330,000,000 bushels of wheat re- 

 quired ten years later by a hungry world ? 

 What is to happen if the present rate of 

 population be maintained, and if arable 

 areas of sufiicient extent cannot be adapted 

 and made contributory to the subsistence 

 of so great a host. 



Are we to go hungry and to know the 

 trial of scarcity? That is the poignant 

 question. Thirty years is but a day in the 

 life of a nation. Those present who may 

 attend the meeting of the British Associa- 

 tion thirty years hence will judge how far 

 my forecasts are justified. 



If bread fails— not only us, but all the 

 bread-eaters of the world — what are we to 

 do? We are born wheat-eaters. Other 

 races, vastly superior to us in numbers, but 

 difiering widely in material and intellectual 

 progress, are eaters of Indian corn, rice, 

 millet and other grains; but none of these 

 grains have the food value, the concentrated 

 health-sustaining power of wheat, and it is 

 on this account that the accumulated ex- 

 perience of civilized mankind has set wheat 

 apart as the fit and proper food for the de- 

 velopment of muscle and brains. 



It is said that when other wheat-export- 

 ing countries realize that the States can no 

 longer keep pace with the demand, these 

 countries will extend their area of cultiva- 

 tion, and struggle to keep up the supply 

 pari -passu with the falling oS in other quar- 

 ters. But will this comfortable and cher- 



