892 



SCIENCE. 



[N. S. Vol. XVII. No. 440. 



Transit Subway lines, the electrifying of 

 the Manhattan Elevated and the extension 

 of electric lines into the suburbs, and par- 

 ticularly by the construction of the Penn- 

 sylvania Railway's proposed tunnel under 

 the rivers and New York, connecting New 

 Jersey and Long Island M'ith the central 

 district of New York city, and additional 

 facilities for handling passengers at the 

 Great Central Depot and transferring 

 them to the Subway. 



It is not safe in such predictions to use 

 estimates of population— nothing but the 

 actual count by a census should be used. 



In 1895 the author was led astray by 

 estimates of Chicago's population, and 

 these erroneous estimates vitiated his pre- 

 dictions of population in 1900, 1910 and 

 1920. In cases where he based them upon 

 reliable official returns his predictions were 

 not far wrong for 1900. 



As this feature of the paper is one of 

 special interest, the table of predictions 

 and its comparison with the actual popula- 

 tions of 1900 is given in full in this 

 synopsis. 



The author's object in obtaining the data 

 and in writing the two papers for the asso- 

 ciation—one in 1895, and the other in 1902 

 — is to furnish information that may be of 

 use in solving some of the important trans- 

 portation, economical and social problems 

 relating to the great masses of humanity 

 assembled in those great cities of over one 

 million inhabitants. 



In compiling a paper on the subject in 

 1910, it will be necessary to add several 

 cities to the list in Great Britain, the 

 United States and Argentina. Buenos 

 Aires is likely to have a population of a 

 million by the year 1906. 



The Pan-American Union and the Bureau 

 of the American Republics: Hon. W. W. 

 RocKHiLL, director of the Bureau of 

 American Republics. 



The International Union of the American 

 Republics, popularly known as the Pan- 

 American Union, has existed since 1890. It 

 was established by the International Con- 

 ference of 1889-90, with the Bureau of the 

 American Republics as its organ. The 

 reason for its creation was the fostering 

 of the friendly relations between all the 

 republics, the dissemination of more gen- 

 eral knowledge of the social and economic 

 conditions obtaining in the various portions 

 of the "Western Hemisphere and for im- 

 proving business intercourse and trade re- 

 lations. In 1893 the publication of a 

 monthly bulletin was inaugurated. It is 

 a magazine published in the English, 

 Spanish, Portuguese and French languages, 

 containing information regarding the in- 

 dustries, trade, manufacture and general 

 resources of the several republics. Its 

 edition is 11,000 copies. The demand for 

 these has been great, especially from the 

 public schools of the country. An im- 

 portant work of the bureau is the publi- 

 cation of maps of the several republics on 

 a uniform scale, giving general geograph- 

 ical as well as economic features, railway 

 and telegraph lines, etc. A code of com- 

 mercial nomenclature containing more than 

 50,000 terms in English, Spanish and 

 Portuguese has been published by the 

 bureau. The first international confer- 

 ence provided that the union should con- 

 tinue in force for ten years, and indicated 

 the manner of its further continuance. It 

 is now in the second decade of its existence. 

 It was early recognized that the lack of an 

 agency to carry on the work initiated by 

 the first international conference was one 

 of the chief reasons why it did not accom- 

 plish as much as its projectors anticipated. 

 It was, therefore, determined by the second 

 conference, held in Mexico in 1901-2, to 

 reorganize the bureau, or rather to broaden 

 and expand its existing organization. The 



