June 5, 1903. J 



SCIENCE. 



895 



portanee of giving tlie greatest weight to 

 the business capacity and general intelli- 

 gence of the individual consul. 



The Relation Betiveen Exports and Im- 

 ports: Hon. T. E. Burton, U. S. House 

 of Representatives. 



In determining the wealth or prosperity 

 of a country nothing is more generally 

 noticed than the relation between exports 

 and imports, the so-called 'balance of 

 trade.' An excess of exports is regarded 

 as indicating prosperity. Yet, independ- 

 ently considered, nothing could be more 

 misleading. In order to ascertain the sig- 

 nificance of this relation it is necessary to 

 consider a number of circumstances, chief 

 among which are the condition of the 

 country in question, whether a debtor or 

 creditor country, in which connection the 

 income derived from loans and invest- 

 ments in other countries, as well as from 

 shipping engaged in international carrying 

 trade, must be taken into account; the 

 stage of development; the quality of im- 

 ports and the uses to which they are ap- 

 plied, particularly whether they be raw 

 material to be utilized in manufacture, or 

 other material to be employed in increasing 

 the productive power of the country. In 

 the final analysis, the comparative utility 

 of that which is received and that which is 

 disposed of must be determined, regardless 

 of valuations. 



Countries receiving tribute or contribu- 

 tions from other lands, like Rome in the 

 days of its supremacy, or Germany after 

 payment of the French indemnity, show a 

 large excess of imports. 



In the United Kingdom the great ex- 

 cess in the value of imports is approxi- 

 mately equaled year by year by the income 

 from investments abroad, and the carrying 

 trade. In new countries rich in resources, 

 exports naturally exceed imports, but when 

 a developing stage begins much material is 



imported from more advanced countries. 

 Imports increase until the improved equip- 

 ment for production acquired by large im- 

 portations makes itself felt in excess of 

 exports again. 



After due allowance has been made for 

 all these modifying circumstances and ex- 

 ceptions, the fact remains that a country 

 importing largely in excess of its exports, 

 when such excess is not derived from the 

 income of a surplus accumulated in the 

 past, or is not devoted to development for 

 the future, gives sign of economic decay. 



The annual excess of imports in countries 

 furnishing commercial statistics is more 

 than one billion of dollars. This excess, 

 though made up partly of carrying charges 

 and profits of trade, where these items are 

 counted in the valuation of imports, can 

 only be explained by the superior utility 

 of commodities in the countries into which 

 they are imported, a fact which necessarily 

 influences valuations. 



The phenomenal excess of exports of the 

 United States during recent years can only 

 be explained by realizing that we have 

 gained a new position as the purveyor of 

 the world's wants. It is impossible that 

 this great disparity of exports can con- 

 tinue. There is an inevitable tendency, 

 whenever a nation obtains great accretions 

 of wealth, to increase purchases abroad. In 

 the last two years the excess has been di- 

 minishing, but other favorable indications 

 appear in the relation between exports and 

 imports, such as the increased proportion 

 of raw material imported for manufactur- 

 ing. In our foreign trade, as well as in all 

 other ways, all signs point to the assured 

 supremacy of the United States. 



Tropical Development a Necessity of 

 World Progress: Hon. 0. P. Austin, 

 chief of the Bureau of Statistics, Treas- 

 ury Department. 



